The Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers meet Thursday in NFL preseason action at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. Here’s a Steelers vs Packers prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Steelers vs Packers pick.
Green Bay Packers Betting Preview
The Packers had a rocky run in 2025, but they still managed to limp into the playoffs. Green Bay went a tepid 9-7-1 overall in head coach Matt LaFleur’s seventh season, failing to reach the heights of an 11-6 run the season before. The good news is that the Packers managed a non-losing record for the third year in a row and swept the rival Detroit Lions for the first time since 2020. The bad news is that aforementioned playoff appearance. Green Bay got into a Wild Card matchup on the road against the Chicago Bears, but ultimately lost that one 31-27. The Packers blew a 21-3 halftime lead and have now gone one-and-done in the postseason in consecutive years.
Looking ahead to 2026, Green Bay’s ultimate goal will be to (at least) win a playoff game. They’ve got to get back to the postseason first, though, which is much easier said than done. The defensive side of the ball will be an area to watch, as the Packers get a new coordinator in Jonathan Gannon. Making matters trickier is the absence of Micah Parsons due to a torn ACL. He’ll be out for at least the first part of the year.
Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview
On the Steelers’ side, they had a wild 2025. The regular season was better in comparison, but the playoff result was the same. In the 19th and final year for head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh ended up going 10-7, the same result as both the 2023 and 2024 campaigns. It was also the third straight postseason appearance for the Steelers, and the end of a four-year AFC North title drought. The Steelers beat their rival Baltimore Ravens in Week 18 to sew up the division championship. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh couldn’t sustain any kind of momentum in the Wild Card game versus the Houston Texans. The Steelers were beaten 30-6 in that one, giving the team seven consecutive playoff losses dating back to 2016.
With Tomlin gone, Mike McCarthy will take over the reins as head coach. It’s looking like a transition year for the Steelers, as most people don’t think they’ll reach the double-digit win mark with a 42-year-old quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. That said, Pittsburgh does boast some improvement in the wide receiver room with DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman and Germie Bernard. Defensive standouts TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith and Jalen Ramsey are back in the fold as well.
Why the Pittsburgh Steelers will win
- The Steelers have won nine of their last 10 games against NFC South opponents.
- The Steelers have covered the spread in each of their last 10 games against NFC South opponents.
- The Steelers have won the first quarter in nine of their last 10 home games against NFC South opponents.
- The Steelers have scored the first touchdown in 16 of their last 19 games as home favorites against NFC opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of the Steelers’ last eight games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Three of the last four Sunday games at Acrisure Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Facts
- Aaron Rodgers has recorded 246+ passing yards in nine of his 10 previous appearances against the Falcons.
- Rico Dowdle has recorded 53+ rushing yards in six of his last seven regular season home appearances.
- D.K. Metcalf has scored at least one touchdown in each of his four previous appearances against the Falcons.
- Jaylen Warren has recorded 68+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last four appearances against NFC opponents.
- D.K. Metcalf has recorded 64+ receiving yards in each of his last eight appearances against NFC South opponents.
- Rico Dowdle has scored the first touchdown in three of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite.
- Aaron Rodgers has recorded 24+ completions in nine of his 10 previous appearances against the Falcons.
- Chris Boswell ranked T1st in the AFC for 50+ yard field goals made (9) last season.
Why the Green Bay Packers will win
- The Packers have won each of their last 10 games as favorites without Luke Musgrave.
- The Packers have covered the spread in five of their last six September games as favorites against NFC North opponents.
- The Packers have won the first quarter in four of their last five September games against NFC opponents.
- The Packers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games as favorites against NFC North opponents.
- The Packers have won the first half in each of their last four games as favorites against NFC North opponents.
Green Bay Packers Player Prop Facts
- Josh Jacobs has scored the last touchdown in four of his last five regular season appearances with the Packers as favorites against NFC opponents.
- Tyrod Taylor has recorded 172+ passing yards in five of his last six appearances as a starter.
- Tyrod Taylor has recorded 28+ rushing yards in six of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite against NFC opponents.
- Josh Jacobs has scored at least one touchdown in 12 of his last 13 regular season appearances with the Packers as favorites against NFC opponents.
- Jayden Reed has recorded 41+ rushing and receiving yards in nine of his last 10 appearances with the Packers as favorites.
- Jayden Reed has recorded 37+ receiving yards in seven of his eight previous September appearances against NFC opponents.
- Jordan Love has recorded 20+ completions in each of the Packers’ last four road games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
Daniel Whelan ranked 1st amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (51.7) last season.
Steelers vs Packers Prediction
I’ll lean toward the Packers, but with preseason games you can easily make a case either way—especially in Week 1 where we’re not likely to see much of the first-string players. That said, it’ll be our first look at a Green Bay team that’s under a bit of pressure these days and staring down a very difficult schedule. The Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, and Detroit Lions loom large in the early part of the season, which will set the tone for the rest of the year.
As for Pittsburgh, they’ve got an over/under line set around 8.5 wins this season, which isn’t super promising. There’s potential trouble on the horizon after the bye, and the Steelers also have a pesky AFC North to contend with. Still, it’ll be interesting to see if Rodgers and McCarthy have any more magic left in the tank together.