The Kansas City Chiefs and the Tennessee Titans meet Sunday in NFL action from Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Here’s a Titans vs Chiefs prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Titans vs Chiefs pick.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
The Chiefs posted a 5-4 record through their first nine games this year, losing to the Chargers, Eagles, Jaguars and Bills. The wins otherwise were versus the Giants, Ravens, Lions, Raiders and Commanders. After the bye week Kansas City hit a 1-3 record through their next four, beating the Colts with losses otherwise versus the Broncos, Cowboys and Texans. That would give KC a 6-7 run across the first 13 games of the year.
In the Chargers matchup on Sunday the Chiefs held a three-point lead at the break. KC was shut out in the second half however, resulting in a 16-13 loss in the end. QB Patrick Mahomes finished 16-of-28 for 189 yards and a pick. Isiah Pacheco led the rush with 11 carries for 21 yards and Travis Kelce led the receivers on seven catches for 70 yards in the losing effort.
Tennessee Titans Betting Preview
Over on the Titans’ side, they limped to a 1-8 record in their first nine games. The win was over the Cardinals; otherwise it was losses to the Broncos, Chargers, Colts, Texans, Raiders, Patriots, Colts and Chargers in succession. After their bye week Tennessee lost to Houston, Seattle and Jacksonville before getting another win over the Browns. That would make a rough 2-11 record in the first 13 games of the year.
Matched up against San Francisco last weekend the Titans were down 17-10 going into the second half. After a wild couple of quarters from there, Tennessee had a 37-24 loss in the end. QB Cameron Ward had 170 yards and two touchdowns off 18-of-29 passing and Tony Pollard added 104 yards and a score off 14 carries. Gunnar Helm put up four catches for 49 yards and a touchdown as well.
Why the Tennessee Titans will win
- The Chiefs have lost each of their last four games as favorites without Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
- The Titans have won each of their last four games as home underdogs against opponents on a losing streak.
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games without Isiah Pacheco.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Chiefs’ last six games.
- The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in four of their last five games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- The Chiefs have lost the first half in three of their last four games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
- The Titans have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five Week 16 home games.
Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win
- The Titans have lost each of their last 11 home games.
- The Chiefs have won each of their last 11 road games following a home loss.
- The Titans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight home games in December.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 road games following a home loss.
- The Titans have won the first quarter in three of their last four games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
- The Titans have lost the first half in 13 of their last 14 games against AFC opponents.
- The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four Week 16 games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Chiefs’ last eight Sunday games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Titans’ last five December games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
Tennessee Titans Player Prop Facts
- Van Jefferson has scored a touchdown in three of his last four home appearances against teams that held a losing record.
- Tony Pollard has recorded 12+ receiving yards in each of his nine previous appearances against AFC West opponents.
- Tyjae Spears has recorded 26+ rushing yards in each of his four previous appearances against AFC West opponents.
- Tony Pollard has recorded 61+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six appearances following a road loss.
- Cam Ward has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Titans’ last four home games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
- Heading into Week 16, Chimere Dike ranks 1st in the NFL in kick return yards (1413) this season.
Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts
- Marquise Brown has recorded 25+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last eight December appearances with his team as a favorite.
- Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last nine appearances against AFC South opponents.
- Patrick Mahomes has recorded 260+ passing yards in eight of the Chiefs’ last nine regular season games against AFC South opponents.
- Kareem Hunt has scored two touchdowns in three of his last four road appearances against AFC South opponents.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has recorded 17+ receiving yards in each of his eight previous road appearances against AFC South opponents.
- Patrick Mahomes has recorded 26+ rushing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 10 regular season games against AFC South opponents.
- Patrick Mahomes has recorded 26+ completions in seven of the Chiefs’ last eight regular season games against AFC South opponents.
- Heading into Week 16, Patrick Mahomes ranks 1st in the AFC for passing yards (3587) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Heading into Week 16, the Titans rank 32nd in the NFL in forced fumbles (4) this season.
- Heading into Week 16, the Titans rank 1st in the NFL in average punt return (18.9 yards) this season.
- Heading into Week 16, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (75.9%) this season.
- Heading into Week 16, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (27.8%) this season.
Titans vs Chiefs Prediction
I’ll stick with the Chiefs. Kansas City is in dire need of a big win and this is a great spot to get it. The Chiefs are coming off another limp effort in the loss to the Chargers with 239 yards on offense, 49 rush yards, 4.1 yards per play and 6-of-13 on third downs alongside a couple of interceptions. KC gave up a tolerable 295 yards on the other side with 5-of-14 on third downs in a pretty solid defensive effort, though. The Chiefs have lost five of their last six games, but they’ve been competitive in pretty much all of those outings.
As for Tennessee, they went just 3-of-9 on third downs in their loss to the 49ers. The defense gave up 430 yards on the other side with 28 first downs and 9-of-15 on third-down conversion attempts. The Titans have 24 or more points in three of their last four games but they’ve given up 25 or more points in all four of those games as well.