In this article we will formulate a Texans vs Bills prediction for this NFL game on Thursday, November 20th at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 12 matchup.
Houston Texans Betting Preview
The Houston Texans are 5-5 this season after they defeated Tennessee by a score of 16-13 in their last game. Houston trailed 3-0 at halftime and 6-0 in the third quarter, but they scored 16 points in the second half, including a field goal as time expired for the win. The Texans out gained Tennessee by a total of 315-229, went 4-13 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Davis Mills went 26-41 for 274 yards and one touchdown, while Woody Marks rushed 18 times for 44 yards. Nico Collins led the receivers with nine receptions for 92 yards and one score in the win. The Houston defense recorded three sacks and five tackles for loss in the game.
Prior to that game, Houston defeated the Jaguars by a score of 36-29, but did lose to the Broncos by a score of 18-15 before that. The Texans have won three of their last four games and they are currently third in the AFC South standings. Houston has scored 22.0 points per game with 222.0 passing yards and 107.6 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 16.3 points against per game this season. Davis Mills has thrown for 726 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while Nico Collins has 49 receptions for 642 yards and four scores this season.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
The Buffalo Bills are 7-3 this year after they defeated Tampa Bay by a score of 44-32 in their last game. Buffalo led 21-20 at halftime, but they trailed 32-31 in the fourth quarter, before scoring the last 13 points for the win. The Bills out gained TB by a total of 414-367, went 6-11 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 3-2 in the game. Josh Allen went 19-30 for 317 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions, while James Cook rushed 16 times for 48 yards. Tyrell Shavers led the receivers with four catches for 90 yards and one score in the win. The Buffalo defense recorded one sack and three tackles for loss in the game.
Prior to that game, Buffalo lost to Miami by a score of 30-13, but did beat Kansas City by a score of 28-21 before that. The Bills have won three of their last four games and they are currently second in the AFC East standings. Buffalo has scored 29.2 points per game with 239.8 passing yards and 147.6 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 22.9 points against per game this season. Josh Allen has thrown for 2,456 yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while James Cook has rushed for 968 yards and seven scores on 182 carries this year.
Why the Buffalo Bills will win
- The Bills have won each of their last eight Thursday games.
- The Texans have lost each of their last four Week 12 games.
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight Week 12 home games against AFC opponents.
- The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last four Week 12 games against AFC opponents.
- The Texans have lost the first quarter in seven of their last eight November games against AFC opponents.
- The Bills have won the first half in each of their last five Week 12 games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Bills’ last six Thursday road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the last four games between the Bills and Texans have gone UNDER the total points line.
Houston Texans Player Prop Facts
- Nick Chubb has scored two touchdowns in three of his last four appearances in home night games against teams that held a winning record.
- Nick Chubb has recorded 22+ rushing yards in each of his last 45 home appearances.
- Joe Mixon has scored a touchdown in each of his four previous appearances against the Bills.
- Christian Kirk has recorded 22+ receiving yards in each of his last 28 appearances with his team as an underdog.
- Christian Kirk has recorded 25+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 28 appearances with his team as an underdog.
- Heading into Week 12, Danielle Hunter ranks T4th in the NFL in sacks (9.0) this season.
Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts
- Josh Allen has scored two touchdowns in each of the Bills’ last four games against teams on a winning streak.
- Josh Allen has recorded 20+ completions in each of the Bills’ last 11 games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
- Josh Allen has recorded 235+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last eight November games.
- Keon Coleman has recorded 23+ receiving yards in each of his seven previous appearances with the Bills as favorites following a home win.
- Josh Allen has recorded 32+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last six Week 12 games.
- James Cook has recorded 114+ rushing and receiving yards in three of the Bills’ last four games.
- Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last 15 games against teams on a winning streak.
- Heading into Week 12, Josh Allen is the only player to have recorded 10+ total touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. (including 2025).
Matchup/League Facts
- Heading into Week 12, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in points allowed per game (16.3) this season.
- Heading into Week 12, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in yards allowed per game (258.1) this season.
- Bills – seven different players have recorded 60+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 12.
- Heading into Week 12, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per game (147.6) this season.
Texans vs Bills Prediction
Both of these teams come into this matchup after winning three of their last four games, but Houston will be at home. The Texans were very fortunate to get by Tennessee and Jacksonville in their last two games, so they will need to play much better here. Buffalo put up 44 points last week against Tampa Bay and they have scored at least 28 in three of their last four. I do think this Buffalo defense has some holes, but I am not confident that Davis Mills can exploit them. Take Buffalo to cover on the road.
David Racey is 66-42 (61%) in the NFL this season and he is currently #1 on the NFL Leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for this week!