In this article, we will formulate a Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, April 24, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview
The Toronto Maple Leafs (54-26-4, 42-42 ATS) secured nine wins in the last ten games of the regular season and clinched the Atlantic Division title. The Maple Leafs beat the Senators in Game 1 and Game 2 of this playoff series; first, they recorded a 6-2 win and then edged out the Sens 3-2 in overtime. Max Domi scored a winner in OT, while Morgan Rielly and John Tavares also scored. Anthony Stolarz saved 26 of 28 shots he faced.
The Maple Leafs average 3.26 goals per game this year (7th), while they allow 2.79 GPG (8th). Mitch Marner leads the team with 106 points (28 G and 78 A). William Nylander contributes 87 points (46 G and 41 A), while Auston Matthews has 81 points (33 G and 48 A).
Anthony Stolarz (23-8-3) will likely take his place in the cage for the Maple Leafs on Thursday against the Senators. The 31-year-old is allowing 2.14 goals per game this year with a .926 SV% and four shutouts.
Ottawa Senators Betting Preview
The Ottawa Senators (45-31-8, 36-48 ATS) concluded the regular season with six wins in eight games to book their Wild Card place for the playoffs. Despite having 33 shots opposite Toronto’s 24 in Game 1, Ottawa lost that game 6-2, while they also outshot the Leafs in Game 2 (28-21) but fell short 3-2 in overtime. The Senators fought back from two goals behind to tie the score in the third period, but couldn’t get the win in OT. Brady Tkachuk and Adam Gaudette scored for the Sens, while Linus Ullmark stopped 18 of 21 shots he faced.
The Senators score 2.95 goals per game on average (18th), while they concede 2.83 GPG (13th). This season, Tim Stutzle leads the team with 80 points (24 G and 56 A). Drake Batherson has 69 points (23 G and 46 A), while Jake Sanderson chips in with 57 points (11 G and 46 A).
Linus Ullmark (25-16-3) is expected to start for the Senators at the goal on Thursday against the Maple Leafs. The 31-year-old is allowing 2.72 goals per game this year with a .910 SV% and four shutouts.
Why the Senators will beat the Maple Leafs
- The Senators have won 10 of their last 11 home games against Eastern Conference opponents.
- The Maple Leafs have lost seven of their last eight night games at Canadian Tire Centre against opponents on a losing streak.
- The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last 11 night games at Canadian Tire Centre following a home win.
- The Senators have covered the puck line in 11 of their last 12 home games against the Maple Leafs.
- The Maple Leafs have lost the second period in four of their last five games as underdogs when tied after the first period.
Total Goals Facts
- Six of the Senators’ last seven games have gone OVER the total goals line.
- Five of the Maple Leafs’ last six games following an overtime win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- Eight of the last nine Thursday night games between teams from the same conference have gone OVER the total goals line.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Senators’ last six games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games at Canadian Tire Centre against opponents on a losing streak.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Ottawa Senators rank T6th in the league in short-handed goals this season (9).
- The Ottawa Senators rank T8th in the league for shots per game this season (29.3).
- The Toronto Maple Leafs rank T8th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.79).
- The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 2nd in the league for Period 2 goals scored per game this season (1.23).
Senators vs Maple Leafs Prediction
The Senators won six of the previous ten H2H encounters and were on a five-game winning streak over Toronto before the Maple Leafs won the opening two games of this playoff series. Ottawa outshot Toronto in both games but was unlucky. This is pretty much the Senators’ last chance to get back into the series because if they lose, there is no chance they will bounce back from a 0-3 hole. I know this is the playoffs, but the Senators already beat this Toronto team three times in the regular season. They know how to do it, and I am backing the hosts to do it again on Thursday.