In this article we will formulate a Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, April 26th at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup in the 1st round of the playoffs.
Ottawa Senators Betting Preview
The Ottawa Senators are down 3-0 in this series and they are facing elimination here. Ottawa has played decently well in the series, but they have lost two games in overtime. In their game three loss, the Senators led 1-0 early in the second period, but they needed a goal late in the third to tie the game, before losing on a soft goal in overtime. Ottawa recorded 20 shots on goal, won 37.3% of the face-offs, and went 1-4 on the power play in the game. The Senators got goals from Giroux and Tkachuk, while Ullmark stopped 17 out of 20 shots in the loss.
Prior to this series, the Senators defeated the Hurricanes by a score of 7-5, but did lose to the Blackhawks by a score of 4-3 before that. Ottawa has lost four of their last five games and they finished fourth in the Atlantic standings with 97 points. Ottawa has scored 2.95 goals per game and they have allowed 2.83 goals against per game, while also going 23.7% on the power play and 77.7% on the penalty kill this season. Claude Giroux has led Ottawa with one goal, two assists, and three shots on goal, while Brady Tkachuk has added two goals and 14 shots. Linus Ullmark is 0-3-0 with a 3.91 goals against average and an .815 save percentage in the series.
Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview
The Toronto Maple Leafs are up 3-0 in this series, as they have won the first three games by scores of 6-2, 3-2, and 3-2. Toronto dominated game one, but they were lucky to escape with two overtime victories in games two and three. In their most recent win, Toronto took a 2-1 lead early in the third period, but allowed Ottawa to force overtime, before scoring the winning goal just 1:19 into the extra period. The Maple Leafs recorded 20 shots on goal, won 62.7% of the face-offs, and went 1-2 on the power play in the game. Toronto got goals from Knies, Matthews, and Benoit, while Stolarz stopped 18 out of 20 shots in the game.
Prior to this series, the Maple Leafs defeated the Red Wings by a score of 4-3 and the Sabres by a score of 4-0. Toronto has won eight games in a row and they finished first in the Atlantic standings with 108 points. Toronto has scored 3.26 goals per game and they have allowed 2.79 goals against per game, while also going 24.8% on the power play and 77.9% on the penalty kill this season. Mitch Marner has led Toronto with one goal, five assists, and two shots on goal, while Auston Matthews has added one goal, four assists, and 11 shots on goal. Anthony Stolarz is 3-0-0 with a 1.95 goals against average and a .926 save percentage this postseason.
Why the Senators will beat the Maple Leafs
- The Senators have won each of their last six Saturday games.
- The Maple Leafs have lost seven of their last nine games at Canadian Tire Centre against opponents on a losing streak.
- The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in seven of their last eight games at Canadian Tire Centre against opponents on a losing streak.
- The Senators have covered the puck line in 11 of their last 13 games against the Maple Leafs at Canadian Tire Centre.
- The Senators have won the third period in five of their last six home games against Eastern Conference opponents.
Total Goals Facts
- Each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games against opponents on a losing streak have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- Four of the Senators’ last five home games have gone OVER the total goals line.
- Each of the last three games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last nine road games.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in seven of the Senators’ last eight night games.
Ottawa Senators Player Prop Facts
- Claude Giroux has scored a goal in each of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against the Maple Leafs.
- Claude Giroux has recorded at least one assist in each of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against the Maple Leafs.
- Jake Sanderson has recorded at least one point in each of his last eight appearances in night games at Canadian Tire Centre.
- Tim Stutzle has scored two goals against the Maple Leafs this season – equal-most against any opponent.
Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts
- Auston Matthews has scored a goal in each of the Maple Leafs’ last three road games.
- Mitch Marner has recorded at least one assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games against Atlantic Division opponents.
- John Tavares has recorded at least one point in 11 of the Maple Leafs’ last 12 games as underdogs.
- William Nylander ranks T1st in the league for multi-goal games (10) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Ottawa Senators rank T1st in the league for power play goals this season (64).
- The Ottawa Senators rank T1st in the league in short handed goals allowed this season (3).
- The Toronto Maple Leafs rank T7th in the league for goals per game this season (3.26).
- The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of seven teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.
Senators vs Maple Leafs Prediction
Toronto comes into this contest looking to start the 2025 postseason with a sweep, but they will be on the road. The Maple Leafs were very solid on the road this year, but Ottawa was one of the better home teams in the NHL. The Senators really have not played that poorly and they could be up 2-1 if they had just a few more bounces go their way. The Ottawa offense is definitely a concern, but with the teams being this evenly matched, I think Ottawa will fight to live another day with a win.