Erislandy Lara vs. Ramon Alvarez Boxing Pick, Odds, Prediction - 8/31/19
Photo by Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Erislandy Lara vs. Ramon Alvarez
Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 7:00 PM (Minneapolis Armory)
The Line: -- Over/Under:
TV: Fox, Fox Deportes
Erislandy Lara and Ramon Alvarez fight Saturday at the Minneapolis Armory for the World Boxing Association World Super Welter Title.
Erislandy Lara enters this fight with a 25-3-3 record that includes 14 knockouts. Lara has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a March split decision draw against Brian Carlos Castano. Lara is coming off back-to-back split decisions, so he’ll be looking for his first win in two years. Lara allowed his opponent to control the ring way too much, so hopefully he’ll make the proper adjustments in this bout to get his back off the ropes. Lara is a 36-year-old southpaw who stands at 5’9” and has a 75-inch reach. Lara is an athletic fighter who bounces around the ring and even at his age, he’ll have a speed advantage in most of his fights. Lara works well behind his jab, mixes in combinations nicely and has great footwork that allows him to get in and get out. Lara doesn’t have the strongest punching power, but three of his last eight wins have been stoppages, so you can’t sleep on those combinations once he gets going. Lara is very technically sound and isn’t going to get caught up in a brawl, so he forces his opponent to fight at his pace. This will be Lara’s first career fight in Minnesota.
Ramon Alvarez enters this fight with a 28-7-3 record that includes 16 knockouts. Alvarez has won four of his last five fights and is coming off an April win over Jose Carlos Paz. Alvarez is coming off a split decision victory in one of the bigger wins of his career and has a chance at a carer changing victory in this fight. Alvarez is a 33-year-old Mexican who stands at 5’8”, has a 68-inch reach and an orthodox stance. Alvarez is a good boxer who lets his hands go often and has a variety of punches and isn’t afraid to get in a bit of a wild brawl. Alvarez will stand in there and trade punches, but he can take a beating this way and can get a bit sloppy with his defense at times. Alvarez has good head movement and rolls with the punches, but against quality competition, he has to do a better job of keeping his hands up and fighting a bit smarter. This will be Alvarez’s second career fight outside of Mexico.
Lara has been a bit shaky in his last two fights and you have to wonder if age is starting to catch up to him. Lara can’t allow his opponents to control the ring and exchange, giving them confidence they can actually pull off the upset. Alvarez is a decent boxer, but he’s flawed defensively and can be very sloppy at times. A battle tested veteran in Lara should expose the defensive issues and go to work with combinations to the head and body. While he’s not the same fighter he once was, Lara is still in good enough shape and has enough hand speed left to hurt Alvarez.
Lara should win this fight in a stoppage, backing Alvarez against the ropes and forcing the referee to step in.