Shawn Porter vs. Yordenis Ugas Boxing Pick, Odds, and Prediction - 3/9/19
Shawn Porter vs. Yordenis Ugas
Saturday, March 9, 2019 at 11:00 PM (Dignity Health Sports Park)
The Line: Porter -361 / Ugas +319 -- Over/Under:
Shawn Porter and Yordenis Ugas fight Saturday at Dignity Health Sports Park for the WBC welterweight title.
Shawn Porter enters this fight with a 29-2 record that includes 17 knockouts. Porter has won five of his last six fights, and he’s coming off a September win over Danny Garcia. Porter has won three straight fights since the loss to Keith Thurman and will be defending his WBC welterweight title for the first time. Porter is 31 years old, stands at 5’6”, has a 69-inch reach and an orthodox stance. Porter is truly one of the more underrated boxers in the world, as he may not have the sexy style casual fans prefer, but he’s technically sound and has a high IQ. Porter is a quality defensive fighter who bobs and weaves punches well, and he’s highly effective with his counters. Porter doesn’t have elite punching power, as eight of his last 11 wins have ended in decision, but he does a lot of the little things well and is always the aggressor. Porter is going to let his hands go and usually looks good when it’s time to hand the fight over to the judges. Porter has also never clearly lost a fight, as you can make a case he outboxed Thurman and beat Kell Brook. This will be Porter’s fifth career fight in California.
Yordenis Ugas enters this fight with a 23-3 record that includes 11 knockouts. Ugas has won each of his last eight fights, and he’s coming off a September win over Cesar Miguel Barrionuevo. Ugas hasn’t lost since his 2014 bout to Amir Imam and has a chance at the biggest win of his career to date. Ugas is a 32-year-old Cuban who stands at 5’9”, has a 69-inch reach and an orthodox stance. Ugas is a decorated boxer with olympic medals to his name, and while he has a lot of questionable names on his pro resume, there’s no denying his ability. Ugas is a smooth athlete who doesn’t take a lot of punishment and puts his punches together quite nicely. Ugas throws very clean combinations to the body and has a right hand that has dropped many past opponents. Ugas simply has to remember to stay busy and not spend a lot of the time looking to land that one haymaker that may never come. This will be Ugas’ first career fight in California.
Ugas is a live dog in this fight given his smooth attack, his ability to put combinations together and the power in his right hand that can win any bout if landed cleanly. The problem that I have here is that Porter is the more physical fighter between the two and his work rate could very well wear down Ugas over time. Ugas isn’t used to being in the ring with guys such as Porter, who dictate pace and bring the fight to him, and it’s going to take some adjusting. Porter showed in the Garcia fight just how effective he can be when he keeps the foot on the pedal for 12 rounds, and he also ate some brutal right hands, which gives me confidence he can survive Ugas.
A must-watch fight, but Porter should get the victory within a decision.