Baylor vs. Texas Tech - 1/19/19 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Texas Tech at Baylor
Saturday, January 19, 2019 at 6:00 PM (Ferrell Center)
Texas Tech Red Raiders -3 -- Over/Under: 123.5
The Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Baylor Bears meet in Big 12 conference college basketball action from the Ferrell Center on Saturday evening.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders will look to rebound after suffering a 68-64 loss to Iowa State in their last outing. Jarrett Culver led the Red Raiders with 20 points along with a game-high 16 rebounds and a pair of steals for the double-double while Davide Moretti added 10 points on 4 of 9 shooting with a pair of threes as the only other Texas Tech player to score in double figures in the losing effort. Tariq Owens added 7 points with 5 rebounds, a pair of steals and 3 blocks as well in the defeat. Culver leads Texas Tech with an average of 18.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game this season. As a team, Texas Tech is averaging 72.2 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field, 34.1% from 3-point range and 70% from the foul line this season. Texas Tech is also one of the nation’s best teams on defense, giving up the 2nd-fewest points per game in the country, allowing just 54.8 points per game while holding opponents to the lowest field goal percentage against (34.4%) and 2nd-lowest 3-point percentage against (25.2%) in the nation this season.
The Baylor Bears will look to find some form of consistency after alternating wins and losses in each of their last 5 games following a 73-69 win at Oklahoma State in their last time out. King McClure led the Bears with 29 points on 9 of 14 shooting with 7 threes along with 9 rebounds and 4 assists while Jared Butler added 16 points on 6 of 12 shooting with 4 threes and 4 assists and Makai Mason chipped in 13 points on 4 of 10 shooting with 3 triples to finish off the trio of double-digit scorers for Baylor in the winning effort. Mark Vital added 5 points but still led Baylor with team-highs of 13 rebounds and 5 assists while Mario Kegler had a team-high 3 blocks in the win. Tristan Clark led the Bears in scoring with 14.6 points per game, but had surgery on his knee meaning Baylor has lost their leading scorer for the remainder of the season. Vital leads the Bears in rebounding with 7.6 rebounds per game while McClure leads Baylor in assists with 2.5 assists per game this season. As a team, Baylor is averaging 71.3 points per game on 44% shooting from the field, 31.3% from behind the 3-point line and 66.8% from the foul line this season.
Texas Tech is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 conference games while the under is 9-4 in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record. Baylor is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600 while the over is 6-0 in their last 6 conference games. Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
Texas Tech laying such a low line is tempting here considering that the Red Raiders have had a lot of recent success covering against the Bears and the Red Raiders are still one of the best defensive teams in the country. However, Texas Tech has also had all sorts of issues covering the spread this season and have had issues covering in conference play dating back to last year. Baylor isn’t a world-beater by any means and their recent patterns would suggest that the Bears are lined up for a loss, but I just think Baylor steps up to the challenge the way they did against Kansas and can pull off the upset here, so I’ll take the free bucket with Baylor at home in this one.