UCF vs. Memphis - 3/15/19 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Memphis at UCF
Friday, March 15, 2019 at 2:00 PM (FedexForum)
UCF Knights -2 -- O/U: 148
The Memphis Tigers and the UCF Knights meet in an AAC tournament quarterfinal in college basketball action from the FedExForum on Friday afternoon.
The Memphis Tigers will look to keep the ball rolling on home turf after picking up an 83-68 first round win over Tulane in their last outing on Thursday. Jeremiah Martin led the Tigers with 21 points including a 12 of 15 mark from the foul line along with a team-high 7 assists, 3 steals and a pair of blocks. Kyvon Davenport came 2nd with 17 points and 7 rebounds and Mike Parks Jr. added 14 points on a perfect 6 of 6 shooting with 13 rebounds for the double-double. Tyler Harris added 12 points with 4 threes to round out the scoring in double figures for Memphis in the winning effort. Heading into Thursday, Martin led Memphis in scoring and assists with 19.7 points and 4.5 assists per game while Davenport led the Tigers in rebounding with 7 rebounds per game this season. As a team, Memphis is averaging 81.3 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field, 32.8% from behind the arc and 70.5% from the foul line this season.
The UCF Knights come into the conference tournament as the #4 seed, finishing with a 23-7 overall record, including a 13-5 mark in AAC play to finish in a tie for the 3rd spot in the AAC, losing out on the 3rd seed due to a tiebreaker with Temple. UCF played some tough opposition out of conference with their lone losses coming in overtime to Missouri and a 1-point loss to FAU in just their 2nd game of the season. Conference play got off to a solid start for the Knights, pulling out to 3-0 and 5-1 before winning 7 of their last 9 games down the stretch to finish in the top 4 of the AAC, earning the first round bye. B.J. Taylor led UCF in scoring with 16.2 points per game while Aubrey Dawkins came 2nd in scoring with 15.4 points per game and Tacko Fall came 3rd with 10.9 points per game along with a team-high 7.2 rebounds per game this season. As a team, UCF is averaging 72.7 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field, 35.6% from behind the arc and 64.7% from the foul line this season.
Memphis is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games while the under is 4-0 in their last 4 games overall. UCF is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games while the under is 4-1 in the last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Memphis is 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.
It’s a bit surprising to see UCF favored here when this is most likely going to feel like a home game for Memphis combined with the fact that Memphis beat UCF at home by 20 points earlier this season. However, UCF has stepped up their play a lot lately, racking up wins over Houston and Cincinnati who are not only the top two teams in the conference but are both top-20 teams as well. There’s also a rest advantage for UCF considering back-to-backs aren’t all that common in college. I just think this boils down to UCF being the better team at home, so I’ll lay the bucket with the Knights in this one.