Air Force vs. San Jose State - 9/27/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Air Force vs. San Jose State
Friday, September 27, 2019 at 7:01 PM (Falcon Stadium)
Air Force -19 -- O/U: 56.5
The San Jose State Spartans and the Air Force Falcons meet in a week 5 Mountain West Conference college football matchup from Falcon Stadium on Friday night.
The San Jose State Spartans will look to build on a solid win in their last outing, taking down Arkansas by a final score of 31-24 as 20-point underdogs. Josh Love has thrown for 815 yards, 5 touchdowns and an interception on 62.7% passing while Nick Nash leads the Spartans with 141 rushing yards and DeJon Packer has 133 rushing yards with each logging 2 rushing TDs this season. Tre Walker leads the Spartans with 161 receiving yards while Isaiah Hamilton has a team-high 13 receptions for 155 yards and Bailey Gaither has 124 receiving yards this year. Defensively, Ethan Aguayo leads the Spartans with 44 total tackles, while Jay Lenard has 21 total tackles and Nehemiah Shelton has a pair of interceptions and Bobby Brown II has 3 picks this season. As a team, San Jose State is averaging 412.7 yards of total offense and 27.3 points per game while allowing 437.7 yards of total defense and 25.3 points per game against this season.
The Air Force Falcons will also look to build on their 2-1 record after their first loss of the season coming in the form of a 30-19 loss to Boise State last time out. Donald Hammond III has thrown for 238 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions while Kadin Remsberg has a team-high 267 rushing yards with 3 touchdowns while Taven Birdow has 214 rushing yards and the aforementioned Hammond III has 5 rushing TDs this season. Geraud Sanders leads Air Force with 10 receptions for 183 yards and 2 touchdowns while Benjamin Waters has 111 receiving yards. Defensively, Jeremy Fejedelem leads the Falcons with 25 tackles while adding 1.5 sacks this season. As a team, Air Force is averaging 421 yards of total offense and 32.3 points per game while allowing 279.7 yards of total defense and 20 points per game against this season.
San Jose State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games while the under is 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win. Air Force is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 conference games while the under is 4-1 in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams.
I can understand Air Force being favored at home as the option offense can be a killer as it’s one of college football’s greatest wild cards and one of the harder offenses to prepare for. However, San Jose State played really well against Arkansas, and I think the Spartans can carry that confidence over to at least bag a cover here as I simply think this is a case of way too many points and the option chewing up a lot of clock, giving Air Force less time to cover.