Missouri Tigers (3-2) at Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0)
|Date & Time||Saturday October 13, 2018, 7:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: Alabama Crimson Tide -28 -- Over/Under: 73.5
The Missouri Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide meet in SEC conference college football action from Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday evening.
The Missouri Tigers will look to bounce back from back-to-back losses after a 37-35 loss to South Carolina in their last outing. Drew Lock has thrown for 1,487 yards, 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 59.9% passing this season while Larry Rountree III has rushed for 383 yards and 4 scores and Damarea Crockett has 70 rushes for 353 yards and 3 scores. Emanuel Hall leads Mizzou’s receiving corps with 430 yards and 3 touchdowns while Johnathon Johnson has 3 receiving TDs and Albert Okwuegbunam has a team-high 27 receptions this season. As a team, Missouri is averaging the 9th-most total yardage per game with 530 yards of total offense per contest to go along with 39 points per game this season.
The Alabama Crimson Tide will look for another W to remain unbeaten after improving to 6-0 with a 65-31 win over Arkansas in their last outing. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 1,495 yards and 18 touchdowns while Najee Harris leads Bama’s ground attack with 382 rushing yards and 4 TDs. Damien Harris has added 361 rushing yards and 3 scores while Jerry Jeudy leads the Tide’s receiving group with 23 catches for 558 yards and 8 TD grabs and Henry Ruggs III has 6 TD grabs of his own this season. As a team, Alabama is averaging the 4th-most total yardage per game (567.5), the 6th-most passing yards per game (345.3) and the highest-scoring offense in the FBS with 56 points per game this season.
Missouri is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games while the over is 4-1 in their last 5 conference games. Alabama is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win while the over is 4-0 in their last 5 home games.
I’m done trying to figure out Alabama ATS, as when I back them, they don’t cover (ie. the last two weeks against Louisiana and Arkansas) and when I don’t they blow the doors off the other team (i.e.. beating Ole Miss 62-7 as 22.5-point favorites). Instead, this week, I’m going to side with the over. As good as Alabama is, The Tigers can still move the ball, and even if Bama’s defense shows up, the way the offense has been playing, Alabama appears capable of hitting the over themselves on any given day. Give me the over here as I think this matchup is ruled by the offensive units.