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Arkansas vs. LSU - 11/12/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
LSU Tigers (5-3) at Arkansas Razorbacks (6-3)
Date & Time Saturday November 12, 2016, 7:00 PM (EST)
The Line
The Line: Arkansas Razorbacks +6.5 -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
ESPN
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CFB | LSU Tigers (5-3) at Arkansas Razorbacks (6-3)
USA TODAY Sports

The Arkansas Razorbacks and the LSU Tigers face off on Saturday in week 11 SEC college football action.

The Arkansas Razorbacks are 6-3 this season and they are coming off of a monster win over Florida 31-10 last week. The Arkansas offense is averaging 30.9 points and 422.2 yards per game and they have turned the ball over 16 times. Razorbacks QB Austin Allen has completed 61.8 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions and he wasn’t overly impressive but he got it done last week against Florida. Rawleigh Williams anchors the Arkansas rushing attack with 955 yards and 7 touchdowns and Drew Morgan is the leading receiver with 48 catches and 3 touchdowns and Keon Hatcher has 29 catches and 5 touchdowns. Defensively Arkansas is allowing 29 points and 407.2 yards per game with 9 interceptions, 7 fumble recoveries, and 18 sacks but they are allowing nearly 200 yards per game on the ground and they will be tested here. Brooks Ellis is Arkansas’ leading tackler with 62, Josh Liddell has 43 tackles, and Jeremiah Ledbetter has 35 tackles. Arkansas will need a monster performance on both sides of the ball to stay close in this one.

The LSU Tigers are 5-3 this season and they are coming off of a 10-0 loss to Alabama that ended a three game winning streak. The LSU offense struggled mightily last week and for the season they are averaging 26.1 points and 386.4 yards per game while they have turned the ball over 12 times. Tigers QB Danny Etling couldn’t move the ball last week against Alabama and for the season he has completed 58.5 percent of his passes with 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Leonard Fournette is healthy once again and averaging 7.1 yards per carry and he should have a big week against the Arkansas run defense and Malachi Dupre leads in receptions with 26 and Travin Dural has 25 receptions but the passing game has struggled despite a whole roster full of top tier pass catchers. Defensively the Tigers are allowing 14.4 points and 315 yards per game with 7 interceptions, 6 fumble recoveries, and 21 sacks. Kendell Beckwith leads LSU with 85 tackles, Duke Riley has 68 tackles, and Arden Key has 8 sacks. LSU’s defense and running game are strong but the offense needs better QB play and that came into focus once again last week.

Arkansas is 15-6 against the spread at home against a team with a winning road record, 1-5 against the spread after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game, and 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games against LSU. LSU is 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 road games, 2-5 against the spread following a game that they didn’t cover the point spread, and 5-2 against the spread after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

This should be another physical game and a tough game and it will come down to how good LSU can heal the bruises from last week. I do expect the Tigers to score plenty as Arkansas can’t stop the run and if LSU can make the Hogs respect the pass this one could get one sided in a hurry. 

Pick:
LSU Tigers -6.5

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