Auburn Tigers (7-5) at Purdue Boilermakers (6-6)
|Date & Time||Friday December 28, 2018, 1:30 PM (EST)|
The Line: Purdue Boilermakers +3.5 -- Over/Under: 55.5
The Purdue Boilermakers and Auburn Tigers meet Friday in the college football Music City Bowl at Nissan Stadium.
The Purdue Boilermakers enter this contest splitting their last six games and look for their fourth bowl victory since the 2003 season. The Purdue Boilermakers have won three of their last five non-home games. David Blough is completing 66.6 percent of his passes for 3,521 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Blough has three or more touchdown passes in seven of his last 10 games. Rondale Moore and Isaac Zico have combined for 1,876 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns while Brycen Hopkins has 32 receptions. The Purdue Boilermakers ground game is averaging 141.1 yards per contest, and D.J. Knox leads the way with 868 yards and eight touchdowns. Defensively, Purdue is allowing 27.3 points and 441.5 yards per game. Markus Bailey leads the Purdue Boilermakers with 104 tackles, Jacob Thieneman has 5.5 sacks and Kenneth Major has three interceptions.
The Auburn Tigers have split their last eight games overall and have lost four of their last five bowl appearances. The Auburn Tigers have lost three of their last four non-home games. Jarrett Stidham is completing 60.1 percent of his passes for 2,421 yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. Stidham has two or less touchdown passes in each of his last 16 games. Ryan Davis and Darius Slayton have combined for 1,033 receiving yards and two touchdowns while Seth Williams has 24 receptions. The Auburn Tigers ground game is averaging 164 yards per contest, and JaTarvious Whitlow leads the way with 777 yards and four touchdowns. Defensively, Auburn is allowing 19.6 points and 363.1 yards per game. Deshaun Davis leads the Auburn Tigers with 107 tackles, Nick Coe has seven sacks and Daniel Thomas has two interceptions.
The Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Tigers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in December. The under is 12-4 in Tigers last 16 games overall. The over is 4-0 in Boilermakers last 4 bowl games. The under is 15-4-2 in Tigers last 21 non-conference games.
The Purdue Boilermakers had to win on the road against Indiana to clinch this bowl game and have been a tough out all year, as four of their six losses have been decided by four or less points. The Auburn Tigers still have top tier talent on both sides of the ball, but they haven't been consistent this season and have been held to 21 or less points in five of their 12 games. The Purdue Boilermakers have covered eight of their last 10 games when an underdog of at least three points. The Auburn Tigers have split their last eight games ATS when a favorite of at least three points. Purdue has put up a fight in every game its played this season and will up to the task of finishing the season strong and proving that this program is truly on the rise. The Auburn Tigers have been blah for much of the year and are 1-4 SU in bowl games under coach Gus Malzahn. I have to side with the points in a game Purdue, the more motivated team, could win outright.