Central Michigan Chippewas vs. New Mexico State Aggies - 10/12/19 NCAA football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. New Mexico State Aggies
Saturday, October 12, 2019 at 2:00 PM (Kelly/Shorts Stadium)
New Mexico State -10.5; total 55.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds
The New Mexico State Aggies head to Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant, Mich. to face the Central Michigan Chippewas in non-conference action.
New Mexico State is suffering from not being in a conference with an 0-6 record and ugly defensive performances throughout the year. After allowing 58 and 62 to open the season against nationally-ranked Washington State and Alabama, things didn’t get much better in the next four games allowing 31, 55, 30, and 20 points in the next four losses. Things looked better in the 20-13 loss to Liberty in which the Aggies out-gained the Flames 396-334, but it wasn’t enough for the win.
Those defensive performances statistically list the Aggies as the worst defense in FBS, allowing an outrageous 47.2 points per game. The line only has Central Michigan favored against the nation’s worst defense, however, because the Chippewas are only scoring 22 points per game, good enough for just 107th in FBS. But they have shown that they can score in bunches against bad defenses. Central Michigan scored 45 versus Akron (120th scoring defense in FBS) and 42 in a win over Eastern Michigan (94th in FBS).
Central Michigan currently ranks 101st in scoring defense, but the blowout 61-0 loss at Wisconsin hurt that stat brutally. Take that one game out and the Chippewas drop from allowing 30.8 points per game to 21.8, which would rank them at a much more impressive 45th in FBS.
New Mexico State did have a better game against Liberty, but it just doesn’t seem to be enough to stay anywhere near Central Michigan. Quarterback David Moore’s suspension for a banned substance won’t help matters much, but Quinten Dormady appears ready to return from his knee injury suffered in week 2. Watch this injury closely. As of Tuesday, Dormady has been upgraded to probable, but is still a question mark on whether he will start on Saturday.
But considering that Central Michigan is 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games and New Mexico State is 5-12-1 in its last 18, Central Michigan appears to be the right pick.