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Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers - 10/1/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Virginia Cavaliers (1-3) at Duke Blue Devils (2-2)
Date & Time Saturday October 1, 2016, 12:30 PM (EDT)
The Line
The Line: Duke Blue Devils -5 -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
ACCN
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CFB | Virginia Cavaliers (1-3) at Duke Blue Devils (2-2)
USA TODAY Sports

On Saturday, October 1 from Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, the Virginia Cavaliers and the Duke Blue Devils will face off in Week 5 college football action. 

Duke comes into this game at 2-2, following a razor-close victory over Notre Dame on Saturday 38-35. The Blue Devils shocked the Irish in that one, rattling off 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Duke’s Daniel Jones had an efficient day with a 24-of-32 line for 290 yards, three scores and a pick—and also rattled off five carries for 19 rush yards. The reliable Jela Duncan led the Blue Devils in rushing with 21 carries for 121 yards and a TD, while Anthony Nash was tops in receiving with six catches, 123 yards and two TDs. 

So far this year, Jones has gone 92-of-143 for 1090 yards, five touchdowns and three picks. Duncan is far and away the rush leader with 56 carries, 314 yards and four scores. Nash heads the Blue Devils receiving game with 19 receptions for 300 yards and his two touchdowns. 

Over on the Cavaliers’ side, they’re coming off their first victory of the year at 1-3, which was a 49-35 win over Central Michigan in Week 4. Virginia let a 28-0 lead get squandered in this one, but QB Kurt Benkert would save the day with a 27-of-43 line for 421 yards and five touchdowns. Benkert’s main beneficiary was Olamide Zacheaus, who secured eight catches for 141 yards and two scores. Taquan Mizzell held down the Virginia running game with 10 carries for 79 yards and a TD. 

On the season, Benkert is sitting on a 96-of-158 line for 1119 yards, 10 touchdowns and five picks. Albert Reid leads the Cavaliers in rushing with 46 carries for 274 yards and three touchdowns, while Zaccheaus is tops in the receiving game with 22 receptions for 298 yards and three scores for Virginia. 

The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games, and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Virginia is also 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven road games, and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

Meanwhile, the Blue Devils are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games in October, and 12-4 ATS versus a team with a losing record. Duke is also 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games, and 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games following a straight-up win. 

Despite last week’s win, the Cavaliers really haven’t shown us much this season—they could very well still be winless. Duke outmatches them in just about every facet, so the Blue Devils should be able to run away with this one.

Pick:
Duke Blue Devils -5

Andrew has been with Sports Chat Place since 2012, contributing to football, baseball and basketball across the fantasy, college and professional ranks. His goal is to break down the complicated trends and numbers into a language that's accessible even if you're not a seasoned sports bettor, providing comprehensive insight that can apply to just about everyone. Follow Andrew on Twitter for links to his latest Sports Chat Place picks. 

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