Navy Midshipmen (7-2) at East Carolina Pirates (3-7)
|Date & Time||Saturday November 19, 2016, 4:00 PM (EST)|
The Line: East Carolina Pirates +7 -- Over/Under:
The Navy Midshipmen will travel to Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium to take on the East Carolina Pirates this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.
The Navy Midshipmen won their 2nd straight game and improved to 7-2 (5-1 AAC) on the season after defeating the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 42-40, this past Saturday. In an exciting game, Navy held on to 1st place in the AAC-West after being able to run out the clock over the final 5-plus minutes of the game after Tulsa pulled within 2-points. Navy was outgained by the Tulsa by a 576-501 margin however, did win the turnover battle by a 1-0 margin. Leading the way for Navy was QB Will Worth who completed 6 of 8 passes for 111 yards and TD while also gaining 3 TD’s and 122 yards on the ground. On the season, Navy is averaging 35.3 ppg on 441.9 total yards per game (132.3 passing, 309.6 rushing). Offensively, Navy is led their rushing attack that ranks 4th in College Football is rushing yds/g. Leading the Navy rushing attack has been QB Will Worth (23.9 att/g, 101.7 yds/g, 18 TD), RB Chris High (8.9 att/g, 59.1 yds/g, 5 TD), Dishan Romine (4.3 att/g, 42.6 yds/g, TD), and Toneo Gulley (4.1 att/g, 38.7 yds/g, 2 TD). QB Will Worth has completed 61.2% of his passes from 7 TD and 3 INT while averaging 127.3 passing yds/g. Jamir Tillman (3.2 rec/g, 51.0 yds/g, TD) and Darryl Bonner (1.0 rec/g, 24.6 yds/g, 2 TD) have been the leading receivers for the Midshipmen. Defensively, Navy is allowing their opponents to average 29.9 ppg on 444.3 total yards per game (260.6 passing, 183.8 rushing).
The East Carolina Pirates lost their 2nd consecutive game and dropped to 3-7 (1-5 AAC) on the season after being defeated by the SMU Mustangs, 55-31, this past Saturday. East Carolina had trouble protecting the football throughout the entire game and couldn’t fight back after being down by a 38-24 margin at halftime. East Carolina was outgained by SMU by a 477-466 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 5-0 margin. Leading the way for East Carolina was WR Zay Jones who had 173 yards and a TD on 12 receptions. On the season, East Carolina is averaging 28.3 ppg on 496.6 total yards per game (359.5 passing, 137.1 rushing). Offensively, the Pirates have been led by WR Zay Jones who has 6 TD on the season while averaging 147.3 yds/g on 13.9 rec/g. QB Philip Nelson has completed 67.9% of his passes for 16 TD and 8 INT while averaging 261.1 passing yds/g. Nelson was replaced by QB Gardner Minshew in their most recent game and completed 18 of 30 passes for 170 yards, 1 TD, and an INT however, I would expect Nelson to get the start against Navy. Leading the East Carolina backfield has been James Summers (12.9 att/g, 68.3 yds/g, 6 TD) and Anthony Scott (9.9 att/g, 48.0 yds/g, 2 TD). Outside of Zay Jones, Jimmy Williams (3.7 rec/g, 71.1 yds/g, 6 TD) and Quay Johnson (5.4 rec/g, 54.0 yds/g, 3 TD) are the leading receivers for the Pirates. Defensively, East Carolina is allowing their opponents to average 33.0 ppg on 442.6 total yards per game (242.0 passing, 200.6 rushing).
The Midshipmen are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss however, just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Pirates are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home and 8-24 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Navy Midshipmen kept their lead in the AAC-West and unless they get upset by East Carolina or SMU will be in the AAC Championship game. East Carolina has one of the most dynamic WR’s in the country in Zay Jones however, East Carolina has struggled with turnovers all season and rank just 92nd in the country in rushing defense. Navy’s defense might have some trouble with the East Carolina 4th ranked passing attack, however, as the Midshipmen should be able to score at will with their running game, I think Navy covers this single-digit spread. Take Navy to cover.