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Fresno State vs. Toledo - 9/29/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Toledo Rockets (2-1) at Fresno State Bulldogs (2-1)
Date & Time Saturday September 29, 2018, 10:30 PM (EDT)
The Line
The Line: Fresno State Bulldogs -10 -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
ESPN U
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CFB | Toledo Rockets (2-1) at Fresno State Bulldogs (2-1)
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

The Toledo Rockets will travel to Bulldog Stadium (CA) to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs this Saturday night in College Football action.

The Toledo Rockets improved to 2-1 on the season after defeating the Nevada Wolfpack, 63-44, this past Saturday. In a game the featured very little defense, Toledo was able to pull away in the 4th quarter after a 19 TD reception by the Rockets Cody Thompson gave Toledo a 56-38 lead with just 11:49 left in regulation. Toledo was outgained by Nevada by a 582-460 margin however, did win the turnover battle by a 2-1 margin. Leading the way for the Rockets was QB Mitchell Guadagni who completed 15 of 24 passes for 211 passing yards and 4 TD’s while also adding 131 yards and 2 TD on the ground. On the season, Toledo is averaging 51.0 ppg on 465.7 total yards per game (280.7 passing yds/g; 185.0 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Toledo has been led by duel threat QB Mitchell Guadagni who has completed 63.9 % of his passes for 9 TD & 1 INT while averaging 232.7 passing yds/g. Guadagni is also the leading rusher for the Rockets as he had 3 rushing TD’s on the season and is averaging 66.0 rushing yds/g. In the backfield for the Rockets has been Bryant Koback (9.33 att/g; 39.7 yds/g; 2 TD) and Shakif Seymour (9.0 att/g; 31.0 yds/g; 2 TD). The top receivers for Toledo have been Diontae Johnson (4.0 rec/g; 82.0 yds/g; 4 TD), Cody Thompson (3.0 rec/g; 48.0 yds/g; 4 TD), and Jon’Vea Johnson (1.7 rec/g; 45.3 yds/g; 2 TD). Defensively, Toledo is allowing their opponents to average 32.0 ppg on 425.7 total yards per game (233.0 passing yds/g; 192.7 rushing yds/g).

 The Fresno State bounced back from their tough loss at Minnesota to easily defeat the UCLA Bruins, 38-14, and improve to 2-1 on the season. Fresno State dominated the Bruins on both ends of the field and had no trouble securing the victory after they raced out to an 16-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter. Fresno State outgained UCLA by a 420-270 margin and won the turnover battle by a 4-2 margin. Leading the way for the Bulldogs was QB Marcus McMaryion who completed 22 of 33 passes for 270 yards and a TD while also adding 4 TD’s on the ground. On the season, Fresno State is averaging 43.7 ppg on 401.7 total yards per game (243.0 passing yds/g; 158.7 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Fresno State has been led by QB Marcus McMaryion who has completed 70.3% of his passes for 3 TD & 1 INT while averaging 227.3 passing yds/g. The top receiving targets for McMaryion and the Bulldogs have been KeeSean Johnson (6.7 rec/g; 97.3 yds/g; TD) and Jared Rice (4.3 rec/g; 44.0 yds/g; TD). Leading the way for the Bulldogs backfield has been Jordan Mims (13.3 att/g; 54.0 yds/g; 3 TD), Dejonte O’Neal (5.0 att/g; 29.3 yds/g; TD), and Josh Hokit (7.7 att/g; 23.0 yds/g). Defensively, Fresno State is holding their opponents to an average of 16.0 ppg on 294.7 total yards per game (177.0 passing yds/g; 117.7 rushing yds/g).

The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. Mountain West opponents and 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games. The Bulldogs are 11-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.

This is going to be an exciting game as both teams can light up the scoreboard. This will be Toledo’s first road game of the season, but I don’t think that it’s going to slow down the Rockets offense that currently ranks 8th in the country in scoring offense. Fresno State is showing that last year was no fluke and with a balanced offensive attack and a defense that has been above average so far this season, the Bulldogs look as if they could be the Mountain West favorites this season. Fresno State is a tough place to play, but the Bulldogs haven’t seen an offense like the Rockets so far this season and I think Toledo will be able to do enough with the double-digit points to cover in this one. Take Toledo and the points.

Pick:
Toledo Rockets +10

Brett has been writing for Sports Chat Place since 2014 and currently focuses on College Basketball, College Football, and Fantasy Sports!

We have to deal with Brett being a New England sports fan as he is from New Hampshire so you can imagine how willing he is to talk about Boston sports.

Brett loves diving into the numbers/analytics of his match-ups to provide you with not only great information but most importantly, winners!

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