Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-1) at Kansas State Wildcats (2-2)
|Date & Time||Saturday October 8, 2016, 7:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: Kansas State Wildcats -7 -- Over/Under:
The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Kansas State Wildcats meet Saturday night in a Big 12 showdown at Bill Snyder Family Stadium on ESPNU.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders look for their first road victory of the season to help build on a solid 3-1 start to the season. Patrick Mahomes II is completing 72.9 percent of his passes for 1,770 yards, 18 touchdowns and three interceptions. Mahomes has 22 touchdown passes in his last five games. Jonathan Giles and Cameron Batson have combined for 850 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns while Dylan Cantrell has 16 receptions. The Texas Tech Red Raiders ground game is averaging 116.5 yards per contest, and Demarcus Felton leads the way with 204 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Texas Tech is allowing 37.3 points and 472.5 yards per game. Jordyn Brooks leads the Red Raiders with 23 tackles, Kris Williams has 3.5 sacks and Keenon Ward has one interception.
The Kansas State Wildcats hope to win their fifth straight home game and get a game above a .500 record. Jesse Ertz is completing 48.2 percent of his passes for 584 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. Ertz has moved the chains through the air 25 times in his first four games. Dominique Heath and Jalen McCleskey have combined for 290 receiving yards and three touchdowns while Deante Burton has seven receptions. The Kansas State Wildcats ground game is averaging 178.2 yards per contest, and Ertz leads the way with 170 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Kansas State is allowing 12.5 points and 239.8 yards per game. Elijah Lee leads the Wildcats with 33 tackles, Jordan Willis has four sacks and Kendall Adams has one interception.
The Red Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The Red Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Mahomes is still questionable, so this pick is kind of iffy in my eyes. However, Kansas State's defense is good enough to give Texas Tech fits regardless of who plays quarterback for the Red Raiders. Yes, Texas Tech did score 59 points on Kansas State last season, but that was a banged up team on the road. The Wildcats held the Red Raiders to just 13 points back in 2014. When Kansas State is healthy, it's tough to move the ball against, especially if you're playing a backup.
The home team has won five of the last eight meetings and the favorite has covered six of the last eight. Give me Kansas State to beat Texas Tech at home.