Liberty vs. New Mexico - 9/28/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Liberty vs. New Mexico
Saturday, September 28, 2019 at 5:01 PM (Williams Stadium)
The Line: Liberty -8 -- Over/Under:
The New Mexico Lobos and Liberty Flames meet Saturday in college football action at Williams Stadium.
The New Mexico Lobos look for their first road win to improve to 3-1 on the season. The New Mexico Lobos have lost four straight road games. Brandt Hughes is completing 41.4 percent of his passes for 218 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions. Hughes and Tevaka Tuioti have combined for three touchdowns and one interception this season. Jordan Kress and Aaron Molina have combined for 288 receiving yards and two touchdowns while Marcus Williams has four receptions. The New Mexico Lobos ground game is averaging 200 yards per contest, and Ahmari Davis leads the way with 262 yards and four touchdowns. Defensively, New Mexico is allowing 49.7 points and 546 yards per game. Alex Hart leads the New Mexico Lobos with 21 tackles, Dylan Horton has 1.5 sacks and Jerrick Reed II has one interception.
The Liberty Flames need a victory here to get a game above a .500 record. The Liberty Flames have won six of their last seven home games. Stephen Calvert is completing 60.7 percent of his passes for 1,090 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Calvert has seven touchdown passes in his last three games. Antonio Gandy-Golden and Kevin Shaa have combined for 720 receiving yards and five touchdowns while DJ Stubbs has 13 receptions. The Liberty Flames ground game is averaging 117.5 yards per contest, and Frankie Hickson leads the way with 193 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Liberty is allowing 25.8 points and 434.8 yards per game. Jessie Lemonier leads the Liberty Flames with 29 tackles, Ceneca Espinoza Jr. has 1.5 sacks and Bejour Wilson has two interceptions.
The Lobos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Flames are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 19-6 ATS in their last 25 non-conference games and 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall. The under is 5-1 in Flames last 6 games overall. The over is 6-2 in Lobos last 8 games overall.
The New Mexico Lobos have failed to cover nine of their last 12 games as an underdog. The Liberty Flames are 3-2-2 ATS as a favorite since coming up to the FBS ranks. New Mexico hasn't looked good at all defensively this season and has really had issues covering numbers as well. The Liberty Flames have held their own against some decent competition, which includes beating Buffalo as six-point underdogs. Liberty has been the far more impressive team up to this point and should have a field day against a Lobos defense that can't stop a nosebleed at this point.