Mississippi State vs. Kentucky - 9/21/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Mississippi State vs. Kentucky
Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 3:00 PM (Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field)
Mississippi State Bulldogs -7 -- O/U: 48.5
TV: SEC Network
The Kentucky Wildcats and the Mississippi State Bulldogs meet in a week 4 SEC conference college football matchup from Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field on Saturday afternoon.
The Kentucky Wildcats will look to bounce back from their first loss of the season coming in the form of a 29-21 defeat at the hands of Kentucky last time out. Sawyer Smith has thrown for 343 yards, 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 63.6% passing while Kavosley Smoke has rushed for 251 yards and 2 touchdowns and Asim Rose has picked up 192 rushing yards with a pair of rushing scores of his own. Lynn Bowden Jr. leads Kentucky’s receiving corps with 20 grabs for 201 yards and Ahmad Wagner has 198 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns this season. Defensively, DeAndre Square leads Kentucky with 22 tackles and Kash Daniel has 19 tackles with both Square and Daniel logging an interception this season. As a team, Kentucky is averaging 430 yards of total offense and 32.3 points per game this season.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs will look to rebound from their first loss of the season coming in the form of a 31-24 loss to Kansas State last time out. Tommy Stevens threw for 441 yards, 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 65.5% passing while Kylin Hill has rushed for 431 yards and 2 touchdowns this season. Osirus Mitchell leads the Aggies’ receiving corps with 13 catches for 208 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns this season. Defensively, Jaquarius Landrews has a team-high 24 tackles with 16 solo tackles while Erroll Thompson and Leo Lewis each have 23 tackles while Brian Cole II has 2 sacks this season. As a team, Mississippi State is averaging 411.7 yards of total offense and 33.3 points per game this season.
Kentucky is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games while the over is 5-0 in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss while the under is 48-23-1 in their last 72 conference games. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
Both of these teams have quarterback issues, but the difference is that Mississippi State has a chance in getting Tommy Stevens back for this one as he’s dealt with shoulder issues since the K-State game but still has a chance at returning. Kentucky has had flashes but still hasn’t looked great since Terry Wilson went down with a knee injury and I’m not sure I trust Sawyer Smith in a hostile Mississippi State environment against a tough Bulldogs’ defense. I just like Mississippi State more in this spot, so I’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs at home here.