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New Mexico vs. Liberty - 9/29/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Liberty Flames (1-2) at New Mexico Lobos (2-1)
Date & Time Saturday September 29, 2018, 6:00 PM (EDT)
The Line
The Line: New Mexico Lobos -7 -- Over/Under:
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CFB | Liberty Flames (1-2) at New Mexico Lobos (2-1)
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Liberty Flames and New Mexico Lobos meet Saturday in college football action at Dreamstyle Stadium.

The Liberty Flames look for their first road victory of the season to rebound from a slow 1-2 start. The Liberty Flames have lost four of their last five road games. Stephen Calvert is completing 53.6 percent of his passes for 874 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Calvert has 10 pass completions this season of 25 or more yards. DJ Stubbs and Damian King have combined for 472 receiving yards and two touchdowns while B.J. Farrow has nine receptions. The Liberty Flames ground game is averaging 156.6 yards per contest, and Kentory Matthews leads the way with 221 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Liberty is allowing 31.7 points and 447.3 yards per game. Juwan Wells leads the Liberty Flames with 24 tackles, Ralfs Rusins has one sack and Jeremy Peters has three pass deflections.

The New Mexico Lobos look to remain unbeaten at home to improve to a solid 3-1 on the season. The New Mexico Lobos have lost four of their last six home games. Tevaka Tuioti is completing 62.1 percent of his passes for 382 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Tuioti and Sheriron Jones have combined for seven touchdown passes and four interceptions this season. Elijah Lilly and Anselem Umeh have combined for 221 receiving yards and two touchdowns while Jay Griffin IV has six receptions. The New Mexico Lobos ground game is averaging 198 yards per contest, and Tyrone Owens leads the way with 225 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, New Mexico is allowing 33.3 points and 500.7 yards per game. Stanley Barnwell Jr. leads the New Mexico Lobos with 22 tackles, Rhashaun Epting has 3.5 sacks and Marcus Hayes has two interceptions.

The Flames are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games, 13-2 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The over is 5-1 in Lobos last 6 games overall and the under is 8-3 in Flames last 11 games overall.

The New Mexico Lobos have been the more impressive team this early into the season and has covered two of their first three games. The Liberty Flames have the balanced offense to put some pressure on New Mexico, but they're also one of the worst teams in the country at stopping the run. Only Connecticut and Bowling Green are allowing more rushing yards per game this season than Liberty. The Lobos should have a field day on the ground and should be able to control this game from start to finish. I'll take the home team by a touchdown. 

Pick:
New Mexico Lobos -7

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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