North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Syracuse Orange
|Date & Time||Thursday October 10, 2019, 8:00 PM (EDT)|
4600 Trinity Rd, Raleigh, NC
NC State -4; total 57
The Syracuse Orange travel to Raleigh, N.C. to take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium in ACC Atlantic Division action.
It wasn’t too long ago when this Syracuse team was considered one of the best in the nation. After a preseason rank of 22nd, the Orange moved up one spot to 21st after a season-opening 24-0 win at Liberty. But a shocking 63-20 loss at Maryland followed by a 41-6 defeat at home against then-No. 1 Clemson has pushed Syracuse out of the minds of the weekly pollsters despite quietly putting together impressive wins the past two weeks over Western Michigan (52-33) and Holy Cross (41-3).
In contrast, North Carolina State has not been nationally ranked so far this year, but did receive 28 votes in the coaches poll in week 3 after impressive wins over East Carolina (34-6) and Western Carolina (41-0). But a 44-27 setback at West Virginia in week 3 took national rankings out of consideration. The Wolfpack has split the last two games with a win over Ball State (34-23) and a 31-13 loss to Florida State.
Statistically, there isn’t much between these two teams. Both teams score about 29 points per game, and while Syracuse has allowed a bit more than seven points per game more than the Wolfpack, the Orange have played explosive offensive teams like Maryland and Clemson while NC State has not. Both run a fairly balanced offense, and again, Syracuse has allowed more rushing yards, but most came against Maryland and Clemson.
To show just how even these teams are even further, NC State is just 1-4 against the spread (ATS) this season and Syracuse is just 2-3. The Wolfpack is also just 5-9 ATS since 2017 as a home favorite. However, in that same time, Syracuse is 6-2 ATS as a road underdog. While that stat alone might make Syracuse look like an enticing pick plus the points, it’s still tough to believe in either one of these teams with their poor records against the spread this season.
However, there is a play that completely makes sense for this game: the under. The total of 57 points is steep considering that the two teams have only combined to eclipse 57 points three times this season, and two of those happened when Maryland scored 63 and Clemson scored 41. In short, it wasn’t because of anything that Syracuse did that it was able to reach that total. In addition, the total has gone under in four of NC State’s last five games and has gone under in four of Syracuse’s last six games.
Playing the under is never fun, but it’s the pick here. Take this game under the 57.