South Florida vs. SMU - 9/28/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

South Florida vs. SMU - 9/28/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by

South Florida vs. SMU

Saturday, September 28, 2019 at 3:01 PM (Raymond James Stadium)

The Line: South Florida +7.5 -- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The SMU Mustangs and South Florida Bulls meet Saturday in college football action at Raymond James Stadium.

The SMU Mustangs look for a third road win to improve to 5-0 on the season. The SMU Mustangs have split their last eight road games. Shane Buechele is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,159 yards, seven touchdowns and four interceptions. Buechele has seven touchdown passes in his last three games. Reggie Roberson, Jr. and James Proche have combined for 744 receiving yards and five touchdowns while Kylen Granson has 12 receptions. The SMU Mustangs ground game is averaging 216.7 yards per contest, and Xavier Jones leads the way with 370 yards and eight touchdowns. Defensively, SMU is allowing 28 points and 369 yards per game. Patrick Nelson leads the SMU Mustangs with 27 tackles, Delontae Scott has 5.5 sacks and Terrance Newman has one interception.

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The South Florida Bulls need a victory here to get back to a .500 record. The South Florida Bulls have split their last eight home games. Blake Barnett is completing 48.2 percent of his passes for 212 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Barnett and Jordan McCloud have combined for five touchdown passes and two interceptions. Johnny Ford and Mitchell Wilcox combined for 234 receiving yards and four touchdowns while Randall St. Felix has six receptions. The South Florida Bulls ground game is averaging 112 yards per contest, and Jordan McCloud leads the way with 85 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, South Florida is allowing 26.3 points and 356.7 yards per game. Patrick Macon leads the South Florida Bulls with 21 tackles, Tyrik Jones has one sack and KJ Sails has one interception.

The Mustangs are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in September and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. The under is 11-4 in Bulls last 15 games following a bye week. The over is 4-0 in Mustangs last 4 games overall.

While the SMU Mustangs have been highly effective offensively, this is a letdown spot with them just beating a ranked TCU and putting together its first 4-0 start since 1984. The South Florida Bulls have gotten waxed in two of their three games, but this is an experienced team that entered the season with expectations and has had an extra week to prepare for this contest. While SMU is probably the better team and certainly more trustworthy, this is a bad schedule spot for the Mustangs. I'll take my chances with USF and the free touchdown. 

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Randy’s Pick South Florida +7.5

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.