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Texas vs. Baylor - 10/13/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Baylor Bears (4-2) at Texas Longhorns (5-1)
Date & Time Saturday October 13, 2018, 3:30 PM (EDT)
The Line
The Line: Texas Longhorns -17 -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
ESPN
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CFB | Baylor Bears (4-2) at Texas Longhorns (5-1)
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The Baylor Bears will travel to Royal Texas Memorial Stadium to take on the 9th ranked Texas Longhorns this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.

The Baylor Bears improved to 4-2 (2-1 Big 12) on the season after defeating the Kansas State Wildcats, 37-34, this past Saturday. In a tight back and forth game that featured plenty of offense, Baylor was able to pull off the victory after a 29-yard Connor Martin FG gave the Bears the lead for good with just :08 seconds left in regulation. Baylor outgained Kansas State by a 557-468 margin and won the turnover battle by a 3-2 margin. Leading the way for the Bears was QB Charlie Brewer who completed 30 of 44 passes for 296 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT while also adding a rushing TD. On the season, Baylor is averaging 35.8 ppg on 499.5 total yards per game (325.5 passing yds/g; 174.0 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Baylor has been led by QB Charlie Brewer who has completed 64.1% of his passes for 9 TD & 2 INT while averaging 259.7 passing yds/g. Brewer has also added 4 rushing TD’s on the season. The top receivers for Brewer and the Bears have been Jalen Hurd (7.0 rec/g; 91.7 yds/g; 3 TD), Denzel Mims (6.4 yds/g; 89.8 yds/g; 3 TD), Chris Platt (2.8 rec/g; 38.5 yds/g; TD), and Tyquan Thornton (1.7 rec/g; 29.2 yds/g; 2 TD). Leading the way for the Bears backfield has been the duo of JaMycal Hasty (8.0 att/g; 47.5 yds/g; 3 TD) and John Lovett (8.8 att/g; 46.6 yds/g; 3 TD). Defensively, Baylor is allowing their opponents to average 32.3 ppg on 411.0 total yards per game (217.8 passing yds/g; 193.2 rushing yds/g).

The 9th ranked Texas Longhorns won their 5th straight game and improved to 5-1 (3-0 Big 12) on the season after upsetting the 7th ranked Oklahoma Sooners, 48-45, this past Saturday afternoon. Texas has a historic offensive performance in the Red River Shootout and although they allowed Oklahoma to fight back from a 21-point 4th quarter deficit, the Longhorns held on for the statement victory after Cameron Dicker hit a 40-yd FG with just :09 seconds left in regulation. Texas was outgained by Oklahoma by a 532-501 margin however, did win the turnover battle by a 3-0 margin. Leading the way for the Longhorns was QB Sam Ehlinger who completed 24 of 35 passes for 314 passing yards & 2 TD’s. On the season, Texas is averaging 32.0 ppg on 414.0 total yards per game (256.8 passing yds/g; 157.2 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Texas has been led by QB Sam Ehlinger who has completed 65.3% of his passes for 11 TD & 2 INT while averaging 249.8 passing yds/g. Ehlinger has also been a threat with his legs as although he is averaging just 37.5 rushing yds/g, he does have 6 rushing TD’s on the season. The top receivers for the Longhorns have been Lil’Jordan Humphrey (5.8 rec/g; 89.2 yds/g; 4 TD) and Collin Johnson (5.0 rec/g; 71.8 yds/g; 4 TD). Leading the way for the Texas rushing attack has been the duo of Tre Watson (12.7 att/g; 49.8 yds/g; TD) and Keaontay Ingram (9.4 att/g; 58.6 yds/g; 2 TD). Defensively, Texas is allowing their opponents to average 24.0 ppg on 366.3 total yards per game (233.5 passing yds/g; 132.8 rushing yds/g).

The Bears are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss however, are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Longhorns are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October and 8-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Baylor has to be thrilled with the bounce back they’ve had this season after going just 1-11 last season and looks like their offense is back on track as they come into this game with a scoring offense that ranks 37th in College Football. Texas has continued to impress after falling to Maryland to start the season as the Longhorns have now racked up quality wins agianst USC, TCU, and Oklahoma. Baylor has the offense to put a few points up on the board, however, their defense has really struggled this season and as they lost by 33 points to the Sooners on the road just a couple of weeks ago, I think Sam Ehlinger and the Longhorns will do enough at home to cover this spread.

Pick:
Texas Longhorns -17

Brett has been writing for Sports Chat Place since 2014 and currently focuses on College Basketball, College Football, and Fantasy Sports!

We have to deal with Brett being a New England sports fan as he is from New Hampshire so you can imagine how willing he is to talk about Boston sports.

Brett loves diving into the numbers/analytics of his match-ups to provide you with not only great information but most importantly, winners!

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