UCF vs. Connecticut - 9/28/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
UCF vs. Connecticut
Saturday, September 28, 2019 at 6:01 PM (Spectrum Stadium)
The Line: UCF -42.5 -- Over/Under:
The UConn Huskies and UCF Knights meet Saturday in college football action at Spectrum Stadium.
The UConn Huskies look for a road victory to get back to a .500 record. The UConn Huskies haven’t won a road game since October of 2017. Jack Zergiotis is completing 59.3 percent of his passes for 365 yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Zergiotis and Mike Beaudry have combined for zero touchdowns and four interceptions. Cameron Ross and Ardell Brown have combined for 200 receiving yards on 15 catches while Matt Drayton has seven receptions. The UConn Huskies ground game is averaging 98.3 yards per contest, and Kevin Mensah leads the way with 205 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, UConn is allowing 30 points and 324 yards per game. Omar Fortt leads the UConn Huskies with 22 tackles, Lwal Uguak has 3.5 sacks and Tyler Cole has one interception.
The UCF Knights look for a bounce back win to build on their 3-1 start to the season. The UCF Knights haven’t lost a home game since 2016. Dillon Gabriel is completing 60.6 percent of his passes for 1,057 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. Gabriel and Brandon Wimbush have combined for 13 touchdown passes. Gabriel Davis and Tre Nixon have combined for 665 receiving yards and seven touchdowns while Jacob Harris has five receptions. The UCF Knights ground game is averaging 233.2 yards per contest, and Greg McCrae leads the way with 298 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, UCF is allowing 19 points and 299.5 yards per game. Nate Evans leads the UCF Knights with 25 tackles, Brendon Hayes has two sacks and Tay Gowan has one interception.
The Huskies are 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 road games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games and 17-45-2 ATS in their last 64 games overall. The Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and the over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The under is 6-2 in Knights last 8 conference games. The under is 4-0 in Huskies last 4 games overall.
The UConn Huskies have failed to cover six of their last nine games as a double-digit underdog. The UCF Knights have covered 11 of their last 15 games as a double-digit favorite. This is a lot of points to lay, but UCF has done nothing but cover these type of numbers during this impressive winning stretch they've been on over the years. UCF should also be eager to take out frustration after last weeks loss to Pittsburgh, and UConn has a history of not showing up defensively. I wouldn't touch this game personally, but a beatdown from the UCF Knights is most likely.