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Virginia Cavaliers vs. Miami Hurricanes - 10/11/19 NCAA football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Miami Hurricanes
Date & Time Friday October 11, 2019, 8:00 PM (EDT)
Location
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami, FL
The Line
Miami -1; total 42.5
TV Channel
ESPN
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Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

No. 20 Virginia travels to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens as the Cavaliers take on the Miami Hurricanes in Friday night ACC action.

What in the world has happened to Miami? At 2-3 five games into the season and remaining matchups against Virginia, Pitt, Florida State, and Duke looming, Miami could realistically be looking at a five-win season. And who would guarantee the Hurricanes a win against anyone at this point?

Last week’s 42-35 loss against a not-very-good Virginia Tech team sort of sums up the Hurricane’s season. They had five turnovers in the first six possessions, but then came back from being down 28-0 before eventually losing 42-35. For the season, Miami has fumbled the ball nine times in five games -- and imagine how bad it could have been if it didn’t recover six of them.

And yes, Miami has only lost its three games by less than a touchdown per game, but after the somewhat impressive season-opener against Florida, the Hurricanes and quarterback Jarren Williams have just looked bad. The Virginia Tech game was awful, but the ugly 17-12 win over Central Michigan, in which Miami entered as 30-point favorites, was downright horrible. Where to start? How about 13 penalties, going 1-for-10 on third down, allowing a safety and four sacks, and only managing 51 yards on 34 carries.

Miami will need to be better if it wants to compete with Virginia, which is sort of the anti-Miami. Nothing the Cavaliers do is flashy, but they get the job done. The 30-14 win over Pitt looks better each week, and that was followed by a 52-17 blowout of William & Mary. Virginia took care of Florida State, and might have looked past Old Dominion a bit heading into the showdown against Notre Dame two weeks ago. Despite an Irish win, Virginia held a halftime lead before the Notre Dame defensive line took over.

All the numbers say to take Virginia. The Cavaliers are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games against Miami. Miami is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games. In addition, dating all the way back to 2003, Miami is the worst in the ACC ATS as home favorites at just 35-52-1. And even though the game will be at Miami, Virginia has had two weeks to recover from its Notre Dame loss and to prep for the Hurricanes. Take the Cavaliers and the point.

Pick:
Virginia +1

Kevin Eubanks has been covering sports in one facet or another for nearly three decades. His award-winning writing has been read the world over whether he was covering Liga MX soccer, Lakers basketball, or the U.S. Men's National Soccer Team, working media relations for multiple universities, or just covering high school sports or little league baseball. In short, Eubanks has done it all. He looks forward to sharing his knowledge with the world on Sports Chat Place.

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