Let’s keep the winning going as we look at today’s “Early Only” lineup that features 5 games and starts at 1:10 pm.
We’re going to go with value on the mound and take a roll of the dice with Colorado’s Kyle Freeland in his match-up at home against the San Francisco Giants. Freeland has had some command issues early this season which has led to a 5.90 ERA, however, Freeland certainly has some upside as he had shown this season in solid outings vs. TB (4.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K) & PHI (6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K). Freeland was outstanding at Coors last year, posting a 2.40 ERA over 15 starts and certainly has some K-upside. Freeland posted a 2.08 ERA over 4 starts against SF last season and I think if he can throw strikes, he’ll have a solid outing as the Giants rank just 27th in team batting average (.218 average) & 28th in OPS (.596).
We’re going to stay in Colorado and pay up for the big bats of Nolan Arenado & Trevor Story in their match-up against the LHP Derek Holland. Holland will be making his first start since late April due to a bone bruise in his throwing hand and I love the matchup that the RHB’s have against him today at Coors Field as he is allowing RHB’s to post a .868 OPS against him on the season. Holland comes into this game with a 1.97 HR/9 ratio this season and being in that thin air in Denver today could make that number worse.
Arenado is almost a must play at home vs. an LHP as on the season he has posted a .395 average/.842 slugging percentage/1.307 OPS vs. left handers. Arenado has owned Holland in his career as in 10 AB’s, he has posted a .400 average with 2 HR’s, 7 RBI’s, and 5 BB.
Trevor Story is hitting just .261 on the season, however, he still is showing his outstanding power as he comes into this game with 8 HR’s & 23 RBI’s. Story has a .317 average vs. LHP this season and also has had success against Holland in his career posting a .462 average/1.115 OPS in 13 AB’s against the left-hander.
We have a 2-man stack of Oakland Athletics in Matt Olson & Jurickson Profar in their matchup at home against Cincinnati’s Tanner Roark. Roark has been solid this season with a 3.82 ERA, however, he has struggled with his control a bit and comes into this game with a 1.53 WHIP. Roark hasn’t been great against LHB’s this season, allowing them to post a .350 average & 1.042 OPS.
Matt Olson has some of the best power on the A’s as the slugging 1B hit 29 HR’s last season and I liked how he looked last night, going 2 for 6 against the Reds. Olson posted a .818 OPS after the All-Star break and it will be only a matter of time until he hits his first HR this season now that he is back fully healthy.
Jurickson Profar is hitting just .192 on the season, however his bat is starting to warm up as he is hitting .318 with 2 HR’s over the past week.
We have Kyle Schwarber at a great price hitting 5th today at home against Trevor Williams. The wind is blowing out in Chicago today and although I like Richards as he has an outstanding changeup, I think the Cubs are going to be a popular stack today.
I did go with one San Francisco Giants player, even with Freeland as our pitcher, as there is just too much value with Mac Williamson at just $2,300. Williamson went 2 for 4 with a HR and 4 RBI’s in his first game of the season on Tuesday at Colorado and I’m hoping for a solo HR today.
Mike Trout is going against a less than stellar LHP in Detroit’s Ryan Carpenter and that’s basically all you need to know….haha.
Rounding out the team with be Francisco Lindor who although is really struggling this season, has great value right now at just $3,500. Lindor will be up against Manny Banuelos who might still be recovering after allowing the Red Sox to get 10 straights hits against him in his last outing.
As always, I will make any necessary updates due to confirmed lineups, weather, etc. I will do my best to update the post but if it’s a last-second update, it’s easier for me to post that with an image on Twitter (@BrettCU05).