Update (5:09 PM) - Hi Everyone. I still love the STL/PHI match-up tonight, however, I do think it's a bit too risky with some very unpredictable weather throughout PA tonight.
Instead, I decided to pay down at pitcher with Dylan Bundy who has an high-upside match-up agianst DET so I can pay up for a monster COL stack that includes Daniel Murphy, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and David Dahl.
Milwaukee's RHB's have a nice match-up now, as they will be up against the LHP Devin Smeltzer tonight who will be making his MLB debut. Smeltzer has pitched well in the minors this season, however, he has just a career 3.86 ERA in the minors. I think Aguilar & Braun have some nice value tonight.
Rounding out the team will be Kike Hernandez & Jay Bruce who both have solid match-ups tonight.
Hope everyone enjoyed the holiday weekend!
We had a solid week (well at least the beginning…haha) last week and let’s try to repeat that success again as we take a look at tonight’s MLB FanDuel “Main” slate that features 15-games and starts at 6:35pm.
We have a bunch of weather we’re going to have to keep a close eye on tonight, especially in the STL/PHI game as that is one of the games that I’m targeting the most right now.
On the mound tonight, we’re going to go with Rich Hill of the Dodgers who comes into this game with a 2.67 ERA over his 5 starts while holding his opponents to a .240 batting average/.727 OPS. Hill has yet to allow more than 3 ER’s in any of his starts this season and has been striking out hitters as he has posted an impressive 10.33 K/9 ratio. Hill has been successful against the current Mets roster has in 57 total AB’s, he has recorded 24 K’s and as the Mets rank just 22nd in team strikeout rate this season, I think he has 50-point upside tonight.
As I mentioned above, we need to keep a close eye on the weather of the STL/PHI game as if I think they’ll going to play, I think this is a game that we want to target on both ends. It will be warm in PHI tonight with the wind blowing out so despite some possible rain, you couldn’t ask for better hitting conditions at a ball park that is already one of the better hitters’ parks in MLB.
For the Phillies, they have a solid match-up against Adam Wainwright who is just a shell of his former self nowadays. Wainwright comes into this game with a 4.82 ERA & 1.41 WHIP on the season while allowing opponents to post a .262 average/.818 OPS against him on the season. Wainwright has really struggled against LHB’s this season, allowing them to post a .322 average/.983 OPS.
For the Phillies, we’re going with a 3-man stack of Cesar Hernandez, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto.
Hernandez is having a quietly solid season for the Phillies as he comes into this game with a .302 average with 5 HR’s & 23 RBI’s. Hernandez is hitting .349 for the month of May and was outstanding in the Phillies first series with the Cardinals, going 5 for 10 with a double & HR.
Harper hasn’t delivered on the high expectations everyone had for him after signing that monster contract of the season as he is hitting just .227 on the season, however, he still is producing some solid power numbers as he has 9 HR’s & 34 RBI’s on the season. Harper has had a rough month of May, however, he has fared well against Wainwright over his career as he has posted a .450 average (9 for 20) with a HR against the right-hander.
J.T. Realmuto comes into this game hitting .271 with 8 HR’s on the season and has even been better at home, hitting .303 with 4 HR’s & 18 RBI’s. Throughout the majority of his career, Realmuto has been a reverse splits hitter and came into this season with an impressive .299 average/.814 OPS vs. RHP.
Philadelphia will be going with Nick Pivetta tonight who comes into this game with an 8.35 ERA this season and will be seeing his first action since April 16th. Pivetta has been hit hard this season as he currently is allowing opponents to post a .383 average/1.101 OPS against him. Even when Pivetta is pitching well, he has always had a tendency to give up the HR ball and he comes into this game with a 2.45 HR/9 ratio on the season, which is the highest of any starter going tonight.
For the Cardinals, we’re going with a 3-man stack of Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, and Marcell Ozuna.
Carpenter got off to another slow start this season, however, the 8-year veteran is starting to heat up as over the past week he is hitting .389 with 2 HR’s & 5 RBI’s. Over the last three seasons, Carpenter has posted a .911 OPS vs. RHP and as we know that he has plenty of HR-upside, I love him at this price tonight.
Paul DeJong is having a nice season with the Cardinals as he comes into this game with a .295 average with 8 HR’s & 26 RBI’s. DeJong has been in a wicked slump as of late as he is 0-15, however, DeJong is a solid fastball hitter which he should see plenty of hittable fastball against Pivetta tonight.
Ozuna is hitting just .230 on the season, but he has put up some monster offensive numbers as he has 14 HR’s on the season to go along with 45 RBI’s. Ozuna has been much better against RHP this season, posting a .857 OPS and I think he goes yard tonight.
At C/1B, we’re going with some value with Jesus Aguilar for the Brewers who should been in the lineup tonight as the Brewers will have a DH slot and that their going up against an LHP in Martin Perez. Perez has been outstanding this season, however, Aguilar has to much HR upside to pass up on and has had a .908 OPS vs. LHP over his last three seasons.
Rounding out the team tonight, we’re going with another value pick in the Marlins Curtis Granderson who has a nice matchup against Jeff Samardzija of the Giants. Samardzija has pitched well for the Giants this season, however, he can give up HR’s (1.72 HR/9 ratio) and has allowed LHB’s to post a .800 OPS against him on the season. Granderson is hitting just .187 on the season, however, he does still have some HR-upside as he has 6 HR’s on the season and should be familiar with Samardzija has he has seen him 11 times over his career (3 for 11 with a 2B).
As always, I will make any necessary updates due to confirmed lineups, weather, etc. I will do my best to update the post but if it’s a last-second update, it’s easier for me to post that with an image on Twitter (@BrettCU05).