Update (6:32 PM) - Hi Everyone. Pretty much keeping the same lineup, however, replacing Roberson with Mike Zunino to keep our 3-man TB stack. Image is updated! Good Luck!
We have a big 13-game MLB FanDuel “Main” slate tonight that starts at 7:05pm and let’s take a look at our “initial” lineup for tonight.
On the mound, we have some solid options to choose from and although I do like Chris Sale tonight against his former ball club, I think the best value/upside comes from Atlanta’s Kevin Gausman in his solid match-up against the Miami Marlins. Gausman comes into this game with just a 4.80 ERA and has been a bit shaky in his last two starts, however, this is a talented pitcher that showed us in the 2nd half (3.28 ERA over 12 starts) that he can put together impressive outings. Gausman has a decent 9.90 K/9 ratio and faces a Miami team that ranks just 25th in batting average (.226) vs. RHP & 16th in team strikeout rate (9.0 K/game). Gausman also has had his best start of this season against the Marlins as in early April, he posted a 52-point outing after going 7 innings, giving up just 2 ER’s while striking out 7.
Tampa Bay is probably going to be a popular stack tonight as they are going up against Dan Straily at Camden Yards and although we’re not going with a complete stack as of now, we’re going to get some exposure with Nate Low, Tommy Pham, and Daniel Roberson. Straily is coming off his best start of the season against Minnesota, however, still comes into this game with a 6.75 ERA & 1.66 WHIP. Straily has allowed at least 2 HR’s in three of his five starts this season and has allowed opponents to post a .989 OPS against him.
Nate Lowe was recently called up for the Rays and although he hasn’t shown much power as of yet, he has picked up hit in each of his first 4 MLB games. Lowe has plenty of HR upside as he hit 27 HR’s in the minors last season and posted a solid .300 average/.987 OPS in 21 games at Triple-A Durham prior to being called up.
Tommy Pham is having another solid season as he comes into this game with a .289 average with 4 HR’s & 12 RBI’s. Pham has been much better vs. RHP (.299 average) and this should be a great match-up as Straily has been much worse against RHB’s, allowing them to post a .375 average & 1.096 OPS against him on the season.
Daniel Robertson is hitting just .176 on the season, however, he does have hits in 3 of his last 4 games and has hit 2 HR’s in that span. This is more of a punt play, however, I don’t mind rolling the dice with Robertson tonight in this matchup.
We are going with another mini stack today with the Texas Rangers as we’re loading up some of their left-handed bats in Rougned Odor & Joey Gallo in their match-up against the Blue Jays Trent Thornton. Thornton hasn’t been anything special for the Blue Jays this season as he comes into this game with a 5.08 ERA & 1.38 WHIP. Thornton has struggled against LHB’s, allowing them to post a .952 OPS and can certainly give up the HR ball as he has a 1.59 HR/9 ratio.
Rougned Odor is off to a slow start this season as he is hitting just .136 with 1 HR over his fist 17 games, however we know the HR upside he brings to play as over his past 3 seasons, he has averaged about 24 HR’s a season. Odor has been a much better hitter vs. RHP over his career and has posted a .827 OPS at home over his last three seasons.
Joey Gallo is poised to have a very big season as although he always had the power, Gallo has been a much better overall hitter at the plate as the career .208 hitter is hitting .264 this season and has 10 BB’s over his last 8 games. Gallo already has 11 HR’s on the season, including HR’s in each of his last three games, and if he can continue his patient approach at the plate, he is going to have a breakout year.
We’re paying up for Nolan Arenado as basically, when he is at home vs. an LHP, he is almost a must play. Arenado has been on fire as of late, hitting .355 with 5 HR’s over the past week and continues to crush LHP as he has posted a .344 average & 1.245 OPS vs. LHP on the season. Arenado will be up against Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks who allowed 2 HR’s in his last game and hasn’t had much success against Arenado in his career as Arenado is 11 for 31 (.355 average) with 3 HR’s against him.
Francisco Lindor is hitting just .231 with 3 HR’s on the season, however, we all know it’s a matter of time until he breaks out and at just $3,600, he is my 2nd favorite SS tonight (Trevor Story is #1) in what should be a good match-up against Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi comes into this game with just a 4.54 ERA & 1.28 WHIP and although he has looked solid at times, he really doesn’t seem to have overpowering stuff. Lindor has posted a .312 average/.877 OPS vs. LHP over his past three seasons and I’m going to continue to enjoy getting a player of his caliber in the mid-$3,000 range.
Rounding out my team tonight is one of my favorite value plays on the slate, in Cincinnati’s Jesse Winker. Winker has a great matchup against the RHP Tyler Beede of the San Francisco Giants who in his 2 starts least year, lasted just a combined 7.2 IP while giving up 7 ER’s on 9 H & 8 BB. Winker is hitting just .224 on the season, however, he has shown great HR upside as he has blasted 8 HR’s on the season. Winker is hitting .280 over the past week with 2 HR’s and has posted a .945 OPS at home this season.
As always, I will make any necessary updates due to confirmed lineups, weather, etc. I will do my best to update the post but if it’s a last-second update, it’s easier for me to post that with an image on Twitter (@BrettCU05).