I hope everyone had a good weekend and enjoyed non-stop NFL action yesterday!
We didn’t have a huge Week 1, although we did cash in some of our 50/50’s so it wasn’t a complete loss.
Let’s take a look at tonight’s FanDuel NFL “Monday Night” lineup that features two games (HOU @ NO; DEN @ OAK) and starts at 7:10pm!
Overall, I’m mostly targeting individuals from the HOU @ NO game as outside of some value picks that Oakland provides, there isn’t much outside Tyrell Williams who I love in the DEN @ OAK game.
Behind center, I’m going to go with Deshaun Watson of the Texans who finished last season, completing 68.3% of his passes for 4165 yards (260.3 yds/g), 26 TD, & 8 INT. Watson is a duel-threat QB who certainly can be dangerous with his legs as he averaged 34.4 rushing yds/g to go along with 5 rushing TD’s. Watson was running for his life most of last season as the Texans O-line struggled, however, Watson should feel a bit more relaxed knowing now that the Texans brought in Laremy Tunsil from Miami to protect his blind side. New Orleans ranked 31st in the NFL last season vs. opposing QB’s in terms of FanDuel points allowed per game (21.0 pts/g) and as Watson has some outstanding weapons in both DeAndre Hopkins & Will Fuller V, I think he is the top QB on the slate tonight.
We’ll stay with Houston and get some decent value in the newly acquired Duke Johnson Jr. Duke Johnson Jr. looks as if he is going to finally get his chance to be a lead back after the Texas lost Lamar Miller for the season due to an ACL injury and I actually like the upside that Johnson Jr. brings to the table. Johnson has averaged 4.7 yds/carry over his career but I think his real upside comes in the passing game as he has averaged 59 catches & 542.5 receiving yards over his first 4 seasons in the NFL. The Saints were a tough match-up vs. RB’s last season, however, I think Johnson Jr. hits value tonight with his ability to do damage in the passing game.
Alvin Kamara followed up his outstanding rookie season with another monster year as the duel-threat RB finished with 883 yds & 14 TD on the ground, while piling up 81 receptions for 709 yards & 4 TD in the New Orleans passing attack. Kamara will no longer be splitting time with Mark Ingram II who is now in Baltimore and although they did bring in Latavius Murray, I think the time split will be more in favor of Kamara this year than we saw with Ingram. Similar to New Orleans, Houston’s defense was outstanding against the rush last season, however, as they were just about league average in defending the pass out of the backfield, I have no problem paying up for the dynamic Kamara tonight.
We’re going to pay up for Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins as we’re going with a Houston stack as we have Watson as our QB and for the fact that Hopkins is arguably, the best WR in all of the NFL. Hopkins had his best season in the NFL last year, reeling in 115 receptions for 1572 yards (98.3 yds/g) & 11 TD. Hopkins will probably have to deal with the Saints only decent cornerback in Marshon Lattimore, however, Hopkins has enough talent to be successful against anyone in the NFL.
We’re staying with our Houston stack and going to take a chance on the Texans Will Fuller V who looks like he is fully recovered from last season’s ACL tear and ready to take the field in week 1. Fuller V was having a solid season prior to his injury as over his first 7 games, he had 32 receptions (4.6 rec/g) for 503 yards (71.9 yds/g) & 4 TD. Fuller V is a deep-ball threat for Watson and the Texans and you have to love the match-up as New Orleans ranked dead last in passing defense last season vs. WR’s (3345 yds & 20 TD vs. WR).
Rounding out our WR’s will be Oakland Tyrell Williams in his match-up against the Denver Broncos. Now that the dust has settled after the Antonio Brown saga, it looks as if Williams will be the top-target at WR for Derrick Carr and the Raiders. Williams was a solid 2nd option in his time with the Chargers as he did have a 1000-yard season in 2016 and was productive last season with 41 receptions for 653 yards & 5 TD’s. Denver did allow 17 TD’s to WR’s last season and as I think Williams will see his fair share of targets, he has too much value at just $5,500 not to roll with.
As I’m hoping for a high scoring HOU/NO game, I’m going to pay up at TE for the Saints Jared Cook. The veteran TE is coming off his best season in the NFL, racking up 896 yards & 6 TD on 68 receptions and could even have a bigger season with Drew Brees throwing to him. Houston struggled a bit against TE’s last season, ranking 28th in FanDuel points allowed (9.2 pts/g) and I think Cook gets off to a strong start tonight with his new team.
We’re starting to run a bit short in available funds, so we’re going to go with some value in the Saints veteran WR, Ted Ginn Jr. Ginn Jr. missed the majority of last season, however, still averaged 3.4 rec/g & 41.8 yds/g in the five games he appeared in last season. Ginn Jr. still has above average speed to break off a big play and seems to have a good rapport with Brees as over his last three games last season, he averaged 7 targets/game.
It’s not really that I trust the Oakland defense at all….it’s more that I only have $3,800 left and that I really just don’t trust the Joe Flacco led Denver offense. I’m not rostering any Broncos tonight so I’ll be rooting for the Oakland defense to hopefully have at least a decent game and for the fact that this game is a rivalry game and their playing at home, I don’t mind taking a chance on the Raiders defense.
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@BrettCU05) as this is the best platform for me to make any needed last-minute adjustments!