Thursday, February 28, 2019 at 1:00 PM (PGA National Golf Club)
We leave Mexico for the Florida swing that starts with the Honda Classic, an event that debuted in 1972 and will be played at the PGA National Golf Club. This course can be very tricky with the wind, so this is when you can kind of dig a little deeper and find some very good value. Last week, we cashed on Dustin Johnson and +1100 odds, which means we’ve produced a winner three times in the last four weeks. Let’s keep it going.
Here are five golfers to consider throwing on your card this week.
Billy Horschel, +4000 - Billy Horschel was born and currently resides in Florida, so he should be used to the weather patterns and the wind that can pick up. Horschel hasn’t missed a cut since the RBC Canadian Open back in July, and he’s produced top-25 finishes in five of his last seven events. He’s been sniffing around a victory for months now, which includes many top-five finishes. At the Honda Classic, Horschel has missed the cut four times in seven tries, but his last two times he’s made it to the weekend, he finished eighth and fourth. There’s nice value with Horschel and these odds.
Sergio Garcia, +1600 - We had Sergio Garcia on the card last week at +4500 odds, and he finished sixth with a -10 to par. Garcia has now finished in the top-10 in seven of his last nine events, clearly playing the best golf we’ve seen from in quite some time. Expect another solid week, as Garcia has made the cut in all eight appearances at the Honda Classic and has finished in the top-10 twice, which includes a runner-up finish in 2016. Oddsmakers are catching on to Garcia, but there’s still enough meat on the bone to double dip with the Spaniard.
Justin Thomas, +550 - Justin Thomas is a combined -36 in his last three events and has finished ninth or better in six of his last eight events. Thomas is head and shoulders the favorite to win this week, especially when you throw in he won the Honda Classic last year and finished third here in 2016. Now Thomas has missed the cut twice in his four appearances overall at the PGA National Golf Club, but his boom or bust history along with his current form, he’s clearly the guy to beat. Even with smaller odds than the rest of the field, it’s hard to leave Thomas off a card this week.
Gary Woodland, +2000 - For somebody who has won just one event in the last five years, Gary Woodland has quietly put together some impressive showings the last several months and it appears he’s on track for a breakthrough win. Woodland has finished 17th or better in nine of his last 11 events, which includes a couple of runner-up finishes at the CJ Cup and Sentry Tournament of Champions. Woodland has made the cut in all six appearances at the Honda Classic and finished sixth here in 2011 and runner-up in 2017. I have a good feeling about Woodland this week.
Alex Noren, +5000 - Alex Noren hasn’t looked sharp in his last three performances, and that includes a +9 last week in Mexico. This is a case of buying low, as we’re getting these monster odds with a guy who isn’t that far removed from a stretch where he had five straight top-25 finishes. Throw in his win at the HNA Open de France, and it wasn’t that long ago when Noren was a player bettors wanted on their card. Noren only has two appearances at the Honda Classic, but he finished third last year with a -7, falling just short of a playoff. Don’t be surprised if Noren gets back on track this week.