WGC-Mexico Championship: PGA Golf Pick, Odds, Preview, Predictions, Dark Horses - 2/21/19
Thursday, February 21, 2019 at 12:00 PM (Club de Golf Chapultepec)
We finally leave California and travel to Mexico for the 2019 WGC-Mexico Championship. This event will be played at the Club de Golf Chapultepec, which is the shortest course on the PGA Tour. Our winning streak came to an end last week, but all five of our golfers had decent showings, including Adam Scott who finished in the top-10 and fell just short of cashing a +3500 odds ticket. We’ve been consistent these past few weeks.
Here are five golfers to consider throwing on your card this week.
Dustin Johnson - We can get Dustin Johnson this week at +1100 odds, something you don’t see often. Usually Johnson is the overall favorite and is only giving you five or six times you money. When you can make 10 or more times your money with Johnson, you have to take it regardless of the circumstances. Johnson has top-10 finishes in four of his last eight events and was a solid -7 last week at the Genesis Open. Johnson is a two-time winner at this event and was a runner-up back in 2011. In his last five appearances at the WGC-Mexico Championship, Johnson is averaging a 5.4 finish. It speaks for itself, folks.
Cameron Smith - Cameron Smith wasn’t great last week, as he finished barely in the top-50, but he’s still a golfer who has finished in the top-25 in seven of his last 10 events. Smith has been too consistent lately to be given odds of +6600, so you have to be interested in this play. Smith will be making his debut at the WGC-Mexico Championship, but that doesn’t concern me much considering he grew up with kikuyu grass and is familiar with these type of conditions. Smith has real sleeper potential this week.
Jordan Spieth - Jordan Spieth hasn’t had a top-25 finish since the Dell Technologies Championship back in September. Last week looked promising after a strong first round, and then Spieth completely fell apart and was forced to settle for a +1 and 51st place. Spieth is averaging a finish of 15th in his last four appearances at the WGC-Mexico Championship. Spieth has to show he’s ready to put four complete rounds together, but the bright side is he’s making progress and it’s only a matter of time. I’m simply taking advantage of Spieth and +3300 odds, as these prices will be long gone once he gets back on track for good.
Sergio Garcia - Even with back-to-back questionable showings, Sergio Garcia has finished in the top-10 in six of his last eight events. Garcia is hitting a very good ball at the moment, and he now returns to Mexico where he’s finished 12th or better in four of his last six appearances. Garcia is averaging a 10th place finish in his last three appearances here and has come extremely close to winning this tournament several times over the years. Garcia and +4500 odds is one of the stronger plays on the board this week.
Tommy Fleetwood - Tommy Fleetwood hasn’t been rewarded yet, but he’s been one of the most consistent golfers since last July and he’s coming off a respectable showing at the Genesis Open. When you can get a golfer who is consistently in the running for a victory with odds of +4000, you have to take it. Fleetwood was runner-up at the WGC-Mexico Championship in 2017 and is averaging an eighth place finish here the last two years. Fleetwood should probably be in the top-10 this week in terms of guys who can truly win this event, and these odds don’t reflect that.