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2014 Breeder's Cup Juvenile Pick, Odds, Post Positions, and Preview

USA TODAY Sports

The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile always sets up the following year’s Triple Crown field and this year appears to be more of the same.

The defection of American Pharaoh isn’t much short of devastating, as he appeared to be an extraordinarily promising colt that was probably looked at as a “free square” by many pick-six players and his absence opens up this race quite a bit.  While Pletcher’s duo will now likely vie for favoritism, let’s take a look elsewhere, as they don’t appear to be a cinch.  Upstart chased Daredevil over a very sloppy Belmont track in the G1 Champagne.  In doing so, Upstart dropped back early then gained some ground on the winner, something nobody else in the race even sniffed, and nobody else throughout the course of the day did with any effect and this NY bred gives the look of a steadily improving juvenile primed for another move in the right direction.  Upstart is the bet at a fair price, despite the less-than-desirable post position.  One Lucky Dane projects as the one to catch, and maybe give Baffert life in this race despite losing his ace.  While coming off only a maiden score, it was One Lucky Dane’s first try on dirt and it was authoritative.  Demand a fair price if you’re leaning toward this one.  Carpe Diem is the one I prefer of the Pletcher squad, although I doubt the odds will make a win bet advisable.  Carpe Diem’s Breeders’ Futurity score at Keeneland was very professional but the jury is out on that field he undressed.

1

Calculator

Trujillo/Miller

15-1

2

Private Prospect

Campbell/Campbell

30-1

3

Blue Dancer

Walcott/Tracy

30-1

4

The Great War

Moore/O’Brien

12-1

5

American Pharaoh

Espinoza/Baffert

SCR

6

Lucky Player

Santana Jr/Asmussen

30-1

7

Texas Red

Desormeaux/Desormeaux

20-1

8

Souper Colossal

Lopez/Plesa

12-1

9

Carpe Diem

Velazquez/Pletcher

4-1

10

Mr Z

Smith/Lukas

20-1

11

One Lucky Dane

Bejarano/Baffert

10-1

12

Daredevil

Castellano/Pletcher

7-2

13

Upstart

J Ortiz/Violette

8-1

 

Pick:
#13 Upstart - #11 One Lucky Dane - #9 Carpe Diem

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