San Diego Padres (37-51) at Arizona Diamondbacks (48-39)
|Date & Time||Thursday July 5, 2018, 9:40 PM (EDT)|
The Line: Arizona Diamondbacks -132 / San Diego Padres +122 --- Over/Under: 9
The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks meet Thursday in MLB action at Chase Field.
The San Diego Padres could use a feel good victory here after losing 10 of their last 13 games. The Padres have allowed 17 runs in their last three games and four or more runs in seven of their last 10 games. The San Diego Padres have lost 12 straight games when allowing more than three runs. Offensively, Eric Hosmer leads the Padres with 86 hits and 37 RBI while Jose Pirela and Freddy Galvis have combined for 157 hits and 54 RBI. Eric Lauer gets the ball, and he is 3-5 with a 5.08 ERA and 54 strikeouts this season. This will be Lauer’s first career game against the Diamondbacks.
The Arizona Diamondbacks could use a victory here after losing five of their last six games. The Diamondbacks have allowed 16 runs in their last three games and six or more runs in five of their last 10 games. The Arizona Diamondbacks have lost six of their last eight games when allowing more than two runs. Offensively, David Peralta leads the Diamondbacks with 89 hits and 46 RBI while Paul Goldschmidt and Ketel Marte have combined for 158 hits and 79 RBI. Shelby Miller gets the ball, and he is 0-2 with a 11.42 ERA and 11 strikeouts this season. Miller is 2-2 with a 4.54 ERA and 35 strikeouts in his career against the Padres.
The Padres are 14-37 in their last 51 during game 1 of a series, 1-6 in Lauers last 7 road starts and 2-8 in Lauers last 10 starts. The Diamondbacks are 20-6 in their last 26 Thursday games, 2-10 in Millers last 12 home starts and 1-4 in Millers last 5 starts. The Padres are 4-12 in the last 16 meetings in Arizona and the under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
We've made a lot of money fading the San Diego Padres this season, and they're not heading into this series in good form. However, we've faded the Arizona Diamondbacks as favorites recently as well and it's paid off. The Arizona Diamondbacks aren't playing good ball, and they're throwing out a pitcher in Miller who has allowed 15 hits and 11 runs in 8.2 innings of work this season. While the sample size is quite small, Miller is allowing a .375 batting average with a 2.08 WHIP. There's also the fact this is a quick turnaround for Arizona, as it just played a four hour game Wednesday. I'll take a stab with the Padres based on the value and a fade from the ice cold Arizona Diamondbacks and Shelby Miller.