Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
|Date & Time||Sunday April 7, 2019, 1:20 PM (EDT)|
Atlanta Braves -161 / Miami Marlins +140
The Miami Marlins and the Atlanta Braves meet in the rubber match of their three game NL East division set from SunTrust Park in MLB action on Sunday. The Miami Marlins will look to win the set after emerging victorious on Saturday by a final score of 4-2. Jorge Alfaro led the Fish with three RBIs, going 3 for 4 with a pair of home runs while Peter O’Brien also went yard with a solo home run. Lewis Brinson, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker and Starlin Castro each had a base hit as well in the winning effort for Miami. Sandy Alcantara went four innings, allowing both runs on four hits while walking five, not factoring in the decision. Sergio Romo got the win to improve to 1-0 while Adam Conley picked up his 1st save of the season. Caleb Smith will start game three and is 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 8 strikeouts this season. This will be Smith’s second career start against Atlanta.
The Atlanta Braves will look to bounce back and win the set after dropping game two on Saturday. Freddie Freeman went 2 for 3 with a double and an RBI while Dansby Swanson accounted for the other Braves RBI and Matt Joyce added a pinch-hit double. Tyler Flowers and Ozzie Albies each had a base hit as Atlanta mustered up just six hits as a team in the losing effort. Kyle Wright went six innings, allowing two runs on five hits while striking out four, not factoring in the decision. A.J. Minter ended up with the loss, falling to 0-1 on the year. Sean Newcomb will start game three and is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 3 strikeouts this season. In his career, Newcomb is 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 31 strikeouts against Miami.
Miami is 4-1 in Smith’s last 5 starts and 14-40 in their last 54 road games against a team with a winning record while the over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games overall. Atlanta is 10-2 in their last 12 home games and 7-2 in Newcomb’s last 9 division starts while the over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games against a left-handed starter. Atlanta is 5-0 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts against Miami.
The plus money with Miami is worth a look given how the Marlins silenced Atlanta’s offense on Saturday in addition to the success that the Fish have had with Caleb Smith on the mound. However, Newcomb has owned the Marlins for the most part in his career, and Atlanta has had all of the recent success against the Marlins when Newcomb takes the hill. I just think that the price isn’t terrible for backing the better team with trends on their side, so I’ll do just that and side with Atlanta here.