Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 7/4/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 6:20 PM (SunTrust Park)
Atlanta Braves -165 / Philadelphia Phillies +145
TV: ESPN, FS-Southeast
The Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves meet in the rubber match of their three game NL East division series in MLB action from SunTrust Park on Thursday.
The Philadelphia Phillies will look to bounce back after dropping game two on Wednesday by a final score of 9-2. Bryce Harper had a solo home run while J.T. Realmuto added an RBI of his own while going 2 for 3 to round out Philadelphia’s scoring as a team in the losing effort. Rhys Hoskins had a double while Jay Bruce and Maikel Franco each had a base knock as the Phils mustered up just six hits as a team in the loss. Nick Pivetta took the loss, falling to 4-3 on the year after allowing six runs, five earned, on five hits while striking out four over 5.2 innings of work. Zach Eflin will start the finale and is 7-7 with a 3.34 ERA and 80 strikeouts this season. In his career, Eflin is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 12 strikeouts against Atlanta.
The Atlanta Braves will look to win the series after evening the set up at one win apiece following their victory in game two on Wednesday. Josh Donaldson, Austin Riley and Matt Joyce each had a home run with Donaldson and Riley each having three RBIs while Joyce had two RBIs. Tyler Flowers added an RBI with a double to round out Atlanta’s scoring as a team in the win. Ozzie Albies had a pair of doubles while Bryse Wilson, Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson and Ronald Acuna Jr. each had a base knock as well in the winning effort. Wilson got the win on the mound to improve to 1-0 on the year after giving up just two runs on five hits while striking out five over six innings of work. Mike Soroka will start game three and is 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA and 67 strikeouts this season. This will be Soroka’s first career start against Philadelphia.
Philadelphia is 2-6 in Eflin’s last 8 starts and 2-7 in their last 9 road games while the over is 8-3 in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record. Atlanta is 14-3 in Soroka’s last 17 starts and 11-3 in their last 14 home games while the under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 division games. Philadelphia is 2-8 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams in Atlanta.
This is a bit of a heftier price than I’d like to pay given what’s at stake in the series finale as the Phillies could use this win and Soroka has been a better pitcher on the road than at home, with his ERA being a full two runs higher at SunTrust Park this season. However, that doesn’t change the fact that Soroka has been Atlanta’s stopper this season and has stepped up and performed when the team needs it. The Braves just seem to win games with Soroka on the mound as they’ve gone 11-3 with Soroka on the mound this season. I’ll lay the juice with Atlanta for the series win here.