Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - 4/14/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Sunday, April 14, 2019 at 12:05 PM (Fenway Park)
Over: 10.5 (-102) / Under: 10.5 (-114)
TV: MASN, NESN
The Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox meet in game three of their four game AL East division set from Fenway Park on Sunday afternoon.
The Baltimore Orioles will look to push ahead after winning game two on Saturday by a final score of 9-5. Chris Davis led the O’s by breaking out of his slump to go 3 for 5 with four RBIs including a pair of doubles. Renato Nunez and Rio Ruiz each had two hits and two RBIs while Trey Mancini went 2 for 5 with a double. Jonathan Villar went 2 for 4 while Pedro Severino and Cedric Mullins each had base hits as well in the winning effort. Andrew Cashner got the win to improve to 3-1 after allowing three runs on three hits over five innings of work. John Means will start game three and is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 10 strikeouts this season. This will be Means’ first career start against Boston.
The Boston Red Sox will look to bounce back after dropping game two on Saturday. Christian Vazquez went 2 for 4 with a home run, a double and four RBIs while Andrew Benintendi added a double and Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers each added a base hit as Boston cranked out just six hits as a team in the losing effort. Rick Porcello took another loss, falling to 0-3 on the year after allowing three runs on six hits while walking five over four innings of work. David Price will start game three and is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 13 strikeouts this season. In his career, Price is 15-5 with a 2.75 ERA and 188 strikeouts against Baltimore.
Baltimore is 0-4 in their last 4 games against a left-handed starter and 19-47 in their last 66 division games while the over is 8-1 in their last 9 games overall. Boston is 22-6 in Price’s last 28 home starts and 4-9 in their last 13 games overall while the over is 12-3-2 in their last 17 home games. Boston is 7-0 in Price’s last 7 starts against Baltimore.
I can understand Boston being a heavy favorite here with Price on the mound against a Baltimore team that he’s pretty much had the number of for the majority of his career. However, Price has allowed four runs in each of his first two starts to the year and I’m still not sold on Boston just yet. On the other hand, even with a boatload of plus money, asking Baltimore to win two in a row against Boston with a pitcher that’s making just his second career start seems like a lot to ask in this spot. Instead, I’ll side with the over. Both teams showed that they’re capable offensively and against two pitching staffs that can’t keep runs off of the board early on in the season, the over seems like a pretty safe play here.