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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees - 10/5/18 MLB ALDS Game 1 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

New York Yankees (101-62) at Boston Red Sox (108-54)
Date & Time Friday October 5, 2018, 7:32 PM (EDT)
The Line
The Line: Boston Red Sox -175 / New York Yankees +165 --- Over/Under: 7.5
TV Channel
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MLB | New York Yankees (101-62) at Boston Red Sox (108-54)
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox meet Friday in game one of the MLB ALDS at Fenway Park.

The New York Yankees are coming off a blowout 7-2 win over the Oakland Athletics and are kind of feeling themselves at the moment. The Yankees watched both Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge hit monster homers in the victory, and if those guys are going to heat up, this is a team that is more than capable of producing their 28th title in franchise history. The Yankees are at their best when the offense gets going, and they’ve now won 23 of their last 29 games when scoring four or more runs. The New York Yankees head into this series as possibly the most talented wild card team in MLB history. Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with two hits and two RBI while Aaron Hicks and Luke Voit have combined for two hits and three RBI. J.A. Happ gets the ball, and he is 17-6 with a 3.65 ERA and 193 strikeouts this season. Happ is 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 95 strikeouts in his career against the Red Sox. Happ is 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA and 19 strikeouts in his postseason career. 

The Boston Red Sox are in the playoffs for a third straight season and enter this year as the favorite to win the World Series title. The Red Sox are arguably the most balanced team in baseball, as they scored the most runs in the majors with 876, and they finished eighth with a team ERA of 3.75. The Boston Red Sox can win a variety of ways, which makes them the most dangerous when you factor in other clubs have to do one particular thing well in hopes of advancing. J.D. Martinez leads the Red Sox with 188 hits and 130 RBI while Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi have combined for 348 hits and 167 RBI. Chris Sale gets the ball, and he is 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and 237 strikeouts this season. Sale is 6-4 with a 1.61 ERA and 130 strikeouts in his career against the Yankees. Sale is 0-2 with a 8.38 ERA and 12 strikeouts in his postseason career.

The Yankees are 7-0 in their last 7 games following an off day, 5-2 in their last 7 road games and 0-4 in their last 4 playoff road games. The Red Sox are 44-17 in their last 61 home games, 5-1 in Sales last 6 home starts and 37-18 in Sales last 55 starts. The Yankees are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Boston and the over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

A lot is going to be made of Sale and his career numbers against these current Yankees, as he's owned them, however, I don't trust the guy at this time of year. Sale has a history of his body breaking down at the end of the year, and he's pitched just 17 innings since August. Happ is an experience pitcher who has an ERA of 1.86 in his last 29 innings and the Yankees have won nine of the 11 games he's pitched for them since coming over from Toronto. I also favor the Yankees offense in this small Fenway Park, as the big boppers tend to do damage in Boston. I like the Yankees to win this series, and I certainly love the value we're getting in game one, fading a pitcher who hasn't pitched much in the last two months and who has a history of fading the deeper we get into the season. Give me the big plus money.

New York Yankees +165

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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