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Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins - 5/7/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
Date & Time Tuesday May 7, 2019, 8:05 PM (EDT)
Wrigley Field
Chicago, Illinois
The Line
Chicago Cubs -205 / Miami Marlins +188
TV Channel
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Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Marlins and the Chicago Cubs will meet up on the MLB diamond Tuesday to continue their series.

In the Monday opener of this set, the Marlins secured three runs in the ninth inning and held on for a comeback 6-5 victory.

For Tuesday’s game, the Marlins will be sending out Caleb Smith in the start. Over his 36.0 innings and 3-0 mark so far, Smith has a 2.00 ERA with 45 Ks and nine walks.

Miami put up six hits on Monday, and no player had more than one. Jon Berti put up a solo homer with two runs.

Over on the Cubs’ side, they’re going with Jon Lester in the start Tuesday. Across 26.0 innings and a 2-1 mark so far, Lester has a 1.73 ERA with 27 Ks and seven walks.

The Cubs nearly came back from ruin on Monday, but it wasn’t meant to be. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant each managed homers in that defeat.

The Marlins are 5-14 in their last 19 in game two of a series and 5-17 in their last 22 road games. Miami is 4-0 in Smith’s last four starts and 6-2 in his last eight road starts.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are 4-0 in their last four in game two of a series and 5-2 in their last seven Tuesday games. Chicago is 11-4 in Lester’s last 15 Tuesday starts and 37-14 in his last 51 home starts.

It’s been a pretty steady season for Smith so far, as he’s put up five straight quality starts and hasn’t allowed more than three earned in an appearance. Smith also has three wins in his last four starts.

As for Lester, he’s dealing this year with three of five quality starts and just five earned runs allowed across his 26.0 innings.

I see Smith helping the Marlins stay in the game for a while here but ultimately the Cubs should have the advantage. Still, with the line so thick and the shot at a nice potential payout, I’m value picking the Marlins in this one.

Miami Marlins +188

Andrew has been with Sports Chat Place since 2012, contributing to football, baseball and basketball across the fantasy, college and professional ranks. His goal is to break down the complicated trends and numbers into a language that's accessible even if you're not a seasoned sports bettor, providing comprehensive insight that can apply to just about everyone. Follow Andrew on Twitter for links to his latest Sports Chat Place picks. 

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