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Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - 4/11/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Date & Time Thursday April 11, 2019, 8:05 PM (EDT)
Wrigley Field
Chicago, Illinois
The Line
Chicago Cubs -145 / Pittsburgh Pirates +135
TV Channel
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Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs will wrap up their MLB series on Thursday from Wrigley Field.

On Monday in the opener of this set, Chicago rolled to a big 10-0 shutout win. In game two on Wednesday, Pittsburgh evened it up with a 5-2 victory.

For Thursday’s finale, the Pirates will be sending out Joe Musgrove for the start. In his 9.0 innings and 1-0 mark this year, Musgrove has a clean 0.00 ERA with nine Ks and just one walk.

In the Wednesday win, Pittsburgh’s Starling Marte had the big hit of the night: a two-run homer in the third along with a pair of runs scored. Francisco Cervelli also plated two runs for the Pirates there and had a solo homer.

Over on the Cubs’ side, they’re going with Jose Quintana on Thursday. Over 7.0 innings and an 0-1 record this season, Quintana has a 10.29 ERA with 11 Ks and six walks.

Jason Heyward led Chicago on Tuesday at the plate, putting up a solo homer among his three hits on the evening. Javier Baez added a hit and an RBI for the Cubs, while Kris Bryant had a hit and a run.

The Pirates are 6-2 in their last eight in game three of a series and 1-4 in their last five Thursday games. Pitt is 1-4 in their last five Thursday games and 0-5 in Musgrove’s last five road starts.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are 48-16 in their last 65 Thursday games and 3-7 in their last 10 in game three of a series. Chicago is 17-6 in Quintana’s last 23 home starts and 1-4 in his last five starts overall.

Musgrove has been really great in his (admittedly limited) appearances this year, allowing just three hits in his win and hold. That said, Musgrove has only faced the Reds so far, once at home and once on the road.

As for Quintana, he’s got the one good appearance (4.0 innings; five hits; zero earned in a hold) and the one bad one (eight earned; 3.0 innings; eight hits in a loss) but he should calm down into a high-three/low-four ERA once the season gains some age.

Provided the Pittsburgh offense can give him a little cushion, I like Musgrove to come out firing here. I’ll take Pirates on a value pick.

Pittsburgh Pirates +135

Andrew has been with Sports Chat Place since 2012, contributing to football, baseball and basketball across the fantasy, college and professional ranks. His goal is to break down the complicated trends and numbers into a language that's accessible even if you're not a seasoned sports bettor, providing comprehensive insight that can apply to just about everyone. Follow Andrew on Twitter for links to his latest Sports Chat Place picks. 

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