Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs - 5/16/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 5:40 PM (Great American Ballpark)
Cincinnati Reds -124 / Chicago Cubs +115 -- O/U: 8.5
The Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds meet in the rubber match of their three game NL Central division set from the Great American Ballpark on Thursday.
The Chicago Cubs will look to bounce back and win the series after dropping game two in extra innings on Wednesday by a final score of 6-5. Addison Russell went 2 for 4 with a home run and two RBIs while Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora Jr. each had a solo home run. Daniel Descalso added a pinch-hit RBI to round out the Cubs’ scoring as a team in the loss while Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Taylor Davis and Yu Darvish each had base hits as well in the defeat. Darvish went 5.1 innings, allowing just two runs on five hits while striking out 11, not factoring in the decision. Brad Brach took the loss, falling to 3-1 on the year. Jose Quintana will start the finale and is 4-2 with a 3.50 ERA and 46 strikeouts this season. In his career, Quintana is 3-2 with a 3.69 ERA and 28 strikeouts against Cincinnati.
The Cincinnati Reds will also look to finish strong and win the set after rallying for the win on Wednesday. Eugenio Suarez went 3 for 5 with a home run, a double and three RBIs while Jose Iglesias went 2 for 4 with a homer, a double and two RBIs of his own. Yasiel Puig added an RBI to finish off the Reds’ scoring in the win while Derek Dietrich went 2 for 4 with a double. Nick Senzel had a pair of hits while Joey Votto and Jesse Winker each had a base knock as well in the victory. Sonny Gray allowed three runs on five hits while striking out seven over five innings of work, not factoring in the decision. Amir Garrett got the win in relief to improve to 3-1 on the year. Luis Castillo will start the finale and is 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA and 70 strikeouts this season. In his career, Castillo is 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA and 23 strikeouts against the Cubs.
Chicago is 5-1 in Quintana’s last 6 starts and 5-0 in their last 5 road games while the under is 5-0 in their last 5 games against a right-handed starter. Cincinnati is 12-5 in Castillo’s last 17 home starts and 14-37 in their last 51 division games while the under is 11-0 in their last 11 Thursday games. Chicago is 42-19 in the last 61 meetings between these two teams.
I can understand Cincinnati being favored here, as the Reds have some momentum after rallying for the win on Wednesday and now they get their ace on the mound in Castillo who has been pretty impressive so far this season. However, Quintana is no slouch and the Cubs have simply been the better team over the last few weeks. The pitching matchup is the only reason Cincinnati should be favored here, but otherwise, I think it’s the Cubs’ game to lose, so I’ll take Chicago and the plus money on Thursday.