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Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs - 8/11/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Date & Time Sunday August 11, 2019, 1:10 PM (EDT)
Great American Ball Park
Cincinnati, Ohio
The Line
Cincinnati Reds -135 / Chicago Cubs +125 O/U: 9
TV Channel
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David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds will meet up to finish their MLB series on Sunday.

The two teams split the first pair of installments in this set, Chicago winning 11-5 Thursday and Cincinnati taking a 5-2 win Friday. On Saturday, the Reds took the series lead with a dominant 10-1 victory.

For the Sunday finale, Chicago will send out Jon Lester for the start. Across his 123.0 innings and 9-8 record this year, Lester has a 4.39 ERA with 122 Ks and 29 BBs.

Chicago logged seven hits on the night Saturday, and couldn’t post anything to the scoreboard until the ninth inning.

Over on the Reds’ side, they’re going with Luis Castillo on Sunday. In his 137.0 innings and 11-4 mark so far, Castillo has a 2.63 ERA with 164 Ks and 60 BBs.

Cincinnati ripped 18 hits in the Saturday win. Every starting player got in on the action with at least one knock.

The Cubs are 37-17 in their last 55 in game four of a series and 6-2 in Lester’s last eight Sunday starts. Chicago is 1-6 in Lester’s last seven road starts and 2-5 in his last seven with four days’ rest.

Meanwhile, the Reds are 5-1 in Castillos’ last six starts and 4-1 in his last five home starts. Cincinnati is 5-1 in Castillo’s last six starts in game four of a series and 5-1 in his last six home starts versus a team with a winning record.

Lester has had a couple of rough starts in his last two outings. In that stretch, he’s given up 14 earned on 19 hits in 9.0 innings. Both games, obviously, were losses.

As for Castillo, he has six quality starts in his last seven tries, and a combined three earned in 14.0 innings over his last pair of outings. I like Castillo to come out strong here and help the Reds to a win.

Cincinnati Reds -135

Andrew has been with Sports Chat Place since 2012, contributing to football, baseball and basketball across the fantasy, college and professional ranks. His goal is to break down the complicated trends and numbers into a language that's accessible even if you're not a seasoned sports bettor, providing comprehensive insight that can apply to just about everyone. Follow Andrew on Twitter for links to his latest Sports Chat Place picks. 

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