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Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins - 4/11/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
Date & Time Thursday April 11, 2019, 12:35 PM (EDT)
Great American Ball Park
Cincinnati, Ohio
The Line
Cincinnati Reds -165 / Miami Marlins +155 O/U: 8.5
TV Channel
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David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Marlins and the Cincinnati Reds will be meeting up on the MLB diamond Thursday to finish their series.

In the Tuesday opener, the Reds cruised to a 14-0 blowout win. On Wednesday, Cincinnati made it two straight with a big comeback victory 2-1. There were only six hits (three for each team) in the game, and all the scoring came via solo homer.

In the Thursday game, the Marlins will be sending out Pablo Lopez for the start. Across 10.1 innings and a 1-1 mark this year, Lopez has a 6.10 ERA with 12 Ks and one walk.

On Wednesday in the loss, Miami’s only run calm courtesy of Neil Walker, who homered in the third inning. Martin Prado and Jorge Alfaro logged the other two hits for the Marlins there.

Over on the Reds’ side, they’re going with Sonny Gray in the start Thursday. Over 9.1 innings and an 0-2 record this season so far, Gray has a 2.89 ERA with seven Ks and four walks.

In the Wednesday game, Cincinnati couldn’t get anything going until the eighth inning when Jose Iglesias posted a game-tying leadoff homer. Two batters later, Jesse Winkler put up another solo homer that would eventually win the game for the Reds.

The Marlins are 16-35 in their last 51 Thursday games and 1-4 in their last five in game three of a series. Miami is 1-7 in Lopez’s last eight starts and 0-4 in his last four with five days’ rest.

Meanwhile, the Reds are 6-18 in their last 24 in game three of a series and 2-7 in their last nine Thursday games. The under is also 6-0 in Cincinnati’s last six Thursday games.

Lopez has been pretty sketchy so far this year; he was able to tally a win in his first outing with 5.1 innings and three earned, but dropped in Atlanta on April 5 with 5.0 innings, seven hits and four earned runs.

As for Gray, his name is synonymous with “sketchy” in the mind of many baseball fans as well, but he did pitch pretty darn great in his last outing with 6.2 innings and one earned—but had to settle for a tough-luck loss.

Needless to say, I’m not thrilled with either one of these pitchers, and the scoreboard could get ugly in a hurry here. Still, I think Gray has enough in the tank to set the Reds up for a victory.

Cincinnati Reds -165

Andrew has been with Sports Chat Place since 2012, contributing to football, baseball and basketball across the fantasy, college and professional ranks. His goal is to break down the complicated trends and numbers into a language that's accessible even if you're not a seasoned sports bettor, providing comprehensive insight that can apply to just about everyone. Follow Andrew on Twitter for links to his latest Sports Chat Place picks. 

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