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Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers - 7/4/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
Date & Time Thursday July 4, 2019, 2:10 PM (EDT)
Location
Great American Ballpark
Cincinnati, OH
The Line
Cincinnati Reds +105 / Milwaukee Brewers -125
TV Channel
FS-Ohio, FS-Wisconsin
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The Milwaukee Brewers and the Cincinnati Reds meet in the finale of their four game NL Central division set in MLB action from Great American Ballpark on Thursday.

The Milwaukee Brewers will look to salvage a series split after dropping game three on Wednesday by a final score of 3-0. Lorenzo Cain, Eric Thames, Ben Gamel and Tyler Saladino each had a base hit as none of Milwaukee’s four hits went for extra bases in the losing effort. Jhoulys Chacin took another loss, falling to 3-9 on the year after giving up just two runs on seven hits while striking out eight over six innings of work. Brandon Woodruff will start game four and is 10-2 with a 3.79 ERA and 120 strikeouts this season. In his career, Woodruff is 2-1 with a 5.93 ERA and 16 strikeouts against Cincinnati.

The Cincinnati Reds will look to win the series after taking game three on Wednesday. Yasiel Puig went 2 for 3 with a home run and two RBIs while Jose Iglesias also had two hits and an RBI to finish off Cincy’s scoring as a team in the win. Eugenio Suarez added a double while Joey Votto chipped in a base hit to round out the Reds’ offense as Cincinnati had just six hits as a team in the win. Sonny Gray got the win to improve to 5-5 after throwing eight shutout innings, allowing just four hits while striking out 12 on the way to the victory. Raisel Iglesias closed out the 9th for his 15th save of the campaign. Luis Castillo will start the finale and is 7-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 115 strikeouts this season. In his career, Castillo is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA and 51 strikeouts against Milwaukee.

Milwaukee is 5-1 in Woodruff’s last 5 road starts and 1-4 in their last 5 road games while the under is 6-1 in their last 7 games overall. Cincinnati is 2-5 in Castillo’s last 7 starts and 7-2 in their last 9 home games while the under is 7-3 in Castillo’s last 10 division starts. Cincinnati is 0-4 in Castillo’s last 4 starts against Milwaukee.

Woodruff is having himself quite the year and is sitting with a double-digit win total heading into the all-star break, so I can understand him being a favorite. However, the Brewers continue to run hot and cold and are a hard team to back when they’re not consistently stringing wins together like they’ve been doing lately. Cincinnati is playing some solid baseball right now and Castillo has been a major part of that, sporting an ERA under two at home this season. Getting an ace like Castillo at home with plus money sounds good to me, so I’ll take Cincinnati for the series victory on Thursday.

Pick:
Cincinnati Reds +105

Chris has been a sports fan from when he was old enough to pick up a basketball and was a standout offensive lineman throughout high school and college. Chris uses that same instinct, determination and drive to analyze trends and statistics to find and produce winners on a consistent basis. Chris has been writing for Sports Chat Place since 2016 and covers a wide array of sports from college and pro football, college basketball, hockey and baseball.

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