Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
|Date & Time||Thursday June 13, 2019, 8:05 PM (EDT)|
Kansas City, MO
Over: 8.5 (-110) / Under: 8.5 (-110)
The Detroit Tigers and the Kansas City Royals meet in the rubber match of their three game NL Central division set in MLB action from Kauffman Stadium on Thursday.
The Detroit Tigers will look to win the series after evening the set up at one win apiece following a 3-2 win over Detroit on Wednesday. Ronny Rodriguez had a double and an RBI while Miguel Cabrera and Brandon Dixon each had a sac fly RBI to round out Detroit’s scoring as a team in the win. Christin Stewart, Nick Castellanos, John Hicks and Gordon Beckham each had a double as well in the winning effort for Detroit. Daniel Norris allowed two runs on six hits while striking out six over five innings of work, not factoring in the decision. Nick Ramirez got the win to improve to 3-0 on the year while Shane Greene closed out the 9th for his 20th save of the season. Matthew Boyd will start game three and is 5-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 105 strikeouts this season. In his career, Boyd is 4-7 with a 6.25 ERA and 50 strikeouts against Kansas City.
The Kansas City Royals will look to bounce back after dropping game two on Wednesday. Jorge Soler went 2 for 5 with a double and two RBIs while Adalberto Mondesi had two hits and Whit Merrifield and Billy Hamilton each had a double as well in the loss. Kelvin Gutierrez and Alex Gordon each had base hits as well in the defeat for KC. Danny Duffy gave up two runs on four hits while striking out seven over seven innings of work, not factoring in the decision. Jake Diekman ended up with the loss, falling to 0-3 on the year. Homer Bailey will start game three and is 4-6 with a 5.90 ERA and 55 strikeouts this season. In his career, Bailey is 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 17 strikeouts against Detroit.
Detroit is 8-19 in Boyd’s last 27 road starts and 16-35 in their last 51 games overall while the under is 3-0-1 in Boyd’s last 4 division starts. Kansas City is 1-4 in Bailey’s last 5 starts and 3-9 in their last 12 home games while the under is 8-3 in their last 11 games overall. The over is 9-3-1 in Boyd’s last 13 starts against Kansas City and 5-1-1 in Boyd’s last 7 road starts against Kansas City.
I personally think that Boyd is the better pitcher here, so Detroit being favored makes sense. However, Boyd has also had major issues with the Royals in his career, giving up an ERA over six against Kansas City in his career as well as a 4.78 ERA in five starts against Kansas City last season. On the other hand, Bailey has allowed four or more runs in five of his last nine starts, and I just don’t trust him as a starter in general. I think this is a game that could see both starters get chased fairly early, so I’ll side with the over as I see this game hitting double digits on the total.