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Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - 7/29/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins
Date & Time Monday July 29, 2019, 7:10 PM (EDT)
Marlins Park
Miami, FL
The Line
Miami Marlins +100 / Arizona Diamondbacks -120
TV Channel
FS-Arizona, FS-Florida
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The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Miami Marlins meet in the finale of their four game set in MLB action from Marlins Park on Monday.

The Arizona Diamondbacks will look to bounce back and salvage a series split after dropping game three on Sunday by a final score of 5-1. Jarrod Dyson, Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed and Alex Avila each had a base hit as none of Arizona’s four hits went for extra bases in the losing effort. Robbie Ray ended up with the loss, falling to 9-7 on the year after allowing three runs, two earned, on seven hits while striking out seven over six innings of work. Merrill Kelly will start the finale and is 7-10 with a 4.22 ERA and 96 strikeouts this season. This will be Kelly’s first career start against Miami.

The Miami Marlins will look to win the series after emerging victorious in game three on Sunday. Harold Ramirez went 2 for 4 with a home run and two RBIs while Miguel Rojas and Brian Anderson each went 2 for 4 as well with a solo home run. Martin Prado also went 2 for 4 while Bryan Holaday added a base hit as well in the winning effort. Elieser Hernandez allowed one run on three hits over four innings of work, not factoring in the decision. Jose Quijada picked up the win in relief to improve to 2-3 on the year. Caleb Smith will start the finale and is 6-4 with a 3.30 ERA and 110 strikeouts this season. This will be Smith’s second career start against Arizona.

Arizona is 0-5 in Kelly’s last 5 starts and 2-6 in Kelly’s last 8 road starts while the under is 4-1-2 in their last 7 games overall. Miami is 5-1 in Smith’s last 6 home starts and 4-0 in Smith’s last 4 starts overall while the under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 game four matchups.

Arizona being favored because they have the better record is the only reason that I can think of that makes sense. Kelly is coming off of a start in which he allowed seven runs in less than three innings to the Orioles of all teams, and the Diamondbacks just haven’t had success with the rookie on the mound, losing each of his last five starts, mostly due to a lack of run support, giving him four runs of support or less in each of his last eight starts. The Marlins are up and down with their offensive issues, but Smith has been arguably Miami’s best starter, going 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA at home this season while Miami has won each of his last four starts. I just think this is a spot where the Fish have an edge on the mound, and I think Miami wins the series so I’ll side with the Marlins and the cheaper price here.

Miami Marlins +100

Chris has been a sports fan from when he was old enough to pick up a basketball and was a standout offensive lineman throughout high school and college. Chris uses that same instinct, determination and drive to analyze trends and statistics to find and produce winners on a consistent basis. Chris has been writing for Sports Chat Place since 2016 and covers a wide array of sports from college and pro football, college basketball, hockey and baseball.

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