Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets - 4/2/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
New York Mets at Miami Marlins
Tuesday, April 2, 2019 at 6:10 PM (Marlins Park)
Over: 8 (-104) / Under: 8 (-111)
TV: FS-Florida, SNY
The New York Mets and the Miami Marlins meet in game two of a three game NL East division set in MLB action from Marlins Park on Tuesday night.
The New York Mets will look to keep their momentum going after a 7-3 win over the Fish in game one on Monday. Pete Alonso led the Mets with a home run and three RBIs, while Juan Lagares added a solo homer and Amed Rosario and Jeff McNeil each had an RBI with McNeil putting up a double as well. Michael Conforto and Wilson Ramos each had two hits while J.D. Davis added a double and Dominic Smith chipped in a pinch hit as well. Steven Matz threw 5.1 innings of work, allowing three runs, one earned, on six hits while striking out three, not factoring in the decision. Jeurys Familia got the win to improve his record to 1-0 this season. Jason Vargas will start game two and was 7-9 with a 5.77 ERA and 84 strikeouts last season. In his career, Vargas is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 18 strikeouts against Miami.
The Miami Marlins will look to rebound after dropping game one on Monday. Starlin Castro accounted for all three Miami runs on the board, going 2 for 3 at the dish with a home run. Martin Prado and Jorge Alfaro each went 2 for 4 while Miguel Rojas, Brian Anderson and Lewis Brinson each chipped in a base hit as well in the defeat. Caleb Smith went five innings on the mound allowing two runs on four hits while striking out eight, not factoring in the decision. Tyler Kinley received the blown save while Drew Steckenrider took the loss to fall to 0-1 this season. Jose Urena will start game two and is 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA and 2 strikeouts this season. In his career, Urena is 5-5 with a 3.38 ERA and 34 strikeouts against the Mets.
New York is 5-1 in their last 6 games overall and 0-5 in Vargas’ last 5 road starts against a team with a losing record while the over is 4-1 in their last 5 road games. Miami is 7-19 in Urena’s last 26 starts against a team with a winning record and 19-40 in their last 59 games overall while the over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 home games. The over is 4-1-1 in Urena’s last 6 starts against New York.
Miami and the plus money is slightly tempting given how the Fish handled themselves against Colorado, and New York being favored makes sense considering that the Mets are the better team here, even on the road. However, I simply have zero faith in either starting pitcher, as Vargas got rocked left and right last season, and Urena allowed six runs, five earned, in his lone start this season which lasted just 4.2 innings. Both teams can put runs on the board and especially given this pitching matchup, I can easily see a double-digit final total here, so I’ll side with the over in this matchup.