Los Angeles Dodgers (95-72) at Milwaukee Brewers (99-67)
|Date & Time||Friday October 12, 2018, 8:09 PM (EDT)|
The Line: Milwaukee Brewers +140 / Los Angeles Dodgers -150 --- Over/Under: 7
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers meet Friday in game one of the MLB NLCS at Miller Park.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off a four-game series with the Atlanta Braves and are in the NLCS for the third straight year. The Dodgers are one of the more balanced teams in the postseason, but it was their pitching that led the way in the NLDS, posting a 2.06 ERA and striking out 32 batters in 35 innings. The Los Angeles Dodgers have now won 25 of their last 32 games when allowing five or less runs. Offensively, Justin Turner leads the Dodgers with five hits and one RBI while Joc Pederson and Manny Machado have combined for seven hits and seven RBI. Clayton Kershaw gets the ball, and he is 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and 155 strikeouts this season. Kershaw is 6-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 100 strikeouts in his career against the Brewers. Kershaw is 8-7 with a 4.08 ERA and 142 strikeouts in his postseason career.
The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off a sweep of the Colorado Rockies and are in the NLCS for the first time since 2011. The Brewers easily had the best pitching performance in their division series, as they produced a 0.64 ERA and an allowed batting average of .146 while striking out 30 batters in 28 innings. While the Brewers don’t have a ton of household names, they’re a legit title threat if they can pitch like that for eight more games. The Milwaukee Brewers have allowed two or less runs in six of their last eight games. Offensively, Ryan Braun leads the Brewers with five hits and a stolen base while Erik Kratz and Mike Moustakas have combined for nine hits and four RBI. Gio Gonzalez gets the ball, and he was 20-11 with a 4.21 ERA and 148 strikeouts this season. Gonzalez is 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 39 strikeouts in his career at the Dodgers. Gonzalez is 0-0 with a 4.78 ERA and 26 strikeouts in his postseason career.
The Dodgers are 37-15 in their last 52 games following an off day, 36-15 in Kershaws last 51 road starts and 72-22 in Kershaws last 94 starts. The Brewers are 6-0 in their last 6 games following an off day, 24-9 in their last 33 Friday games and 1-4 in their last 5 League Championship games. The Dodgers are 5-2 in Kershaws last 7 road starts vs. Brewers, 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee and the under is 5-0-1 in Kershaws last 6 road starts vs. Brewers.
It's no secret the Los Angeles Dodgers should be favored with Kershaw on the hill, especially with how he pitched in his first postseason game, shutting out the Atlanta Braves in eight innings. However, Kershaw wasn't the same pitcher on the road this year, as he allowed a 2.90 ERA with an allowed batting average of .243. In his last 17 road innings, Kershaw has given up 12 runs and 22 hits, while striking out 18 batters. Kershaw can be tagged a bit on the road. Gonzalez is also a highly experienced pitcher who has a 2.13 ERA in the five games he's pitched with the Brewers since coming over from the Washington Nationals. The Milwaukee Brewers are a balanced team that puts together good at bats and has a lights out bullpen. Getting the Brewers at home, rested and at solid plus money, I like the value here.