New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves - 9/28/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Saturday, September 28, 2019 at 6:10 PM (Citi Field)
New York Mets -116 / Atlanta Braves -105 -- O/U: 8.5
TV: FS-South, SNY
The Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets meet in game two of their three game NL East division set from Citi Field in MLB action on Saturday.
The Atlanta Braves will look to bounce back after dropping game one on Friday by a final score of 4-2. Josh Donaldson went 2 for 3 with an RBI and Nick Markakis added an RBI of his own to cap off Atlanta’s scoring as a team in the loss. Dansby Swanson went 3 for 5 while Ozzie Albies, Adeiny Hechavarria and Billy Hamilton each had a base hit as none of Atlanta’s nine hits as a team went for extra bases in defeat. Dallas Keuchel took the loss, falling to 8-8 on the year after allowing four runs on seven hits while walking and whiffing four apiece over five innings of work. Mike Foltynewicz will start game two and is 8-5 with a 4.46 ERA and 100 strikeouts this season. In his career, Foltynewicz is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA and 25 strikeouts against the Mets.
The New York Mets will look to build on their series-opening win from Friday. J.D. Davis went 2 for 4 with a home run, a double and two RBIs while Pete Alonso tied Aaron Judge’s rookie record with his 52nd home run of the season and Amed Rosario added an RBI of his own to finish off New York’s scoring as a team in the win. Brandon Nimmo and Todd Frazier each had two hits with a double while Juan Lagares added a base hit of his own to sum up the Mets’ offense as a team in the victory. Marcus Stroman got the win to improve to 4-2 in a Mets uniform after allowing two runs on six hits while striking out eight over six innings of work. Seth Lugo closed out the final two innings for his 6th save of the season. Steven Matz will start game two and is 10-10 with a 4.37 ERA and 146 strikeouts this season. In his career, Matz is 5-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 53 strikeouts against Atlanta.
Atlanta is 16-5 in Foltynewicz’s last 21 division starts and 25-11 in their last 36 games overall while the over is 4-0 in their last 4 games against a left-handed starter. New York is 12-4 in Matz’s last 16 home starts and 7-3 in their last 10 games overall while the over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 division games. New York is 0-4 in Matz’s last 4 starts against Atlanta.
I got burned with the Braves on Friday with Keuchel on the mound, but I like our chances with the Braves going to the well again on Saturday. Matz is a better pitcher at home than on the road, and he has some solid career numbers against Atlanta. However, Matz has also allowed 13 runs in his last two starts spanning just nine innings of work. We’re getting a cheaper price with an Atlanta team that hasn’t lost with Foltynewicz starting since the beginning of June, and Folty has given up just two runs in 26 innings across four starts this month. I’ll take my chances with Atlanta in a bounce back win on Saturday.