New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 4/24/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 6:10 PM (Citi Field)
New York Mets +100 / Philadelphia Phillies -120
TV: ESPN, SNY
The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets meet in the finale of their three game NL East division set from Citi Field in MLB action on Wednesday night.
The Philadelphia Phillies will look to rebound and avoid the sweep after a 9-0 loss in game two on Tuesday. J.T. Realmuto and Maikel Franco each had two hits with Franco adding a double while Cesar Hernandez had a base hit of his own as Philadelphia cranked out just five hits as a team in the losing effort. Zach Eflin took the loss after allowing four runs, three earned, on four hits over four innings of work to fall to 2-3 this season. Vince Velasquez will start the finale and is 0-0 with a 2.55 ERA and 16 strikeouts this season. In his career, Velasquez is 1-4 with a 4.58 ERA and 37 strikeouts against the Mets.
The New York Mets will look to complete the sweep after taking the first two games of the set. Todd Frazier led the Mets with four RBIs coming on a home run while starting pitcher Zack Wheeler had a home run, a double and three RBIs. Wilson Ramos added an RBI while Robinson Cano and Michael Conforto each went 2 for 4. Luis Guillorme and J.D. Davis each had a base hit as well in the victory for the Mets. Wheeler got the win on the mound after tossing seven shutout innings, allowing just five hits while striking out 11. Jason Vargas will start game three and is 1-0 with a 9.58 ERA and 6 strikeouts this season. In his career, Vargas is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 12 strikeouts against Philadelphia.
Philadelphia is 16-35 in their last 51 road games and 1-4 in their last 5 games overall while the under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games against a left-handed starter. New York is 5-1 in Vargas’ last 6 starts and 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record while the over is 15-4-2 in their last 21 games overall. Philadelphia is 0-5 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts against New York.
The Mets getting this kind of price at home feels like a steal considering that the Mets have outscored the Phillies by a combined 14-1 over the first two games. However, I think that this line just goes to speak to how little oddsmakers think of Jason Vargas. Vargas rebounded against the Cardinals, giving up one run across four innings, but the fact is that his ERA remains well over nine this season. Velasquez has pitched well this year, and while the team has struggled in his starts against New York recently, the Phillies are too good of a team to play like this three games in a row, so I’ll lay the juice with Philadelphia here.